NBA Finals Preview

A preview of the 2015 NBA Finals

By: Leon Sultan

History Matters

This Thursday night at Oracle the Warriors will play the Cavaliers for the NBA title. Let that sink in for a moment. The Warriors, the NBA title. I keep waiting for my alarm clock to ring and wake me up.

Growing up as a fan of the Dubs, the idea of a championship has always been spurious. When the Joe Lacob group bought this team and began the rebuilding process talk of building a “championship culture” was bandied about. Steph Curry was drafted, Mark Jackson was brought in. But any mention of a championship still sounded like the aspirational babble of a deluded motivational speaker. I remember Mark Jackson guaranteeing a playoff birth during his first year. “Yeah right, good luck with that” said my inner Warrior fan.

Then again, my inner Warrior fan carries many scars. The scars from when my favorite player had to be suspended and then released for choking the coach. The scars from watching the number one over-all pick, the future of the franchise, be traded for Tom Gugliota after only one season. The scars of drafting Anthony Randolph two spots ahead of Roy Hibbert, and Brandan Wright one spot ahead of Joakim Noah. The unforgivable scars of trading a hall-of-famer to Sacramento for Billy Owens, then missing the playoffs every year but one since 1994.

And then we traded away Monta and it was Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber and Latrell Sprewell all over again. But then it wasn’t. Mark Jackson followed up his first season disappointment with 47 wins, the 6^th seed and a first round upset of the Nuggets. Our drafts were no longer filling our rosters with the likes of Patrick O’Bryant, and Ike Diogu. Instead we were outfoxing the rest of the league drafting future stars; Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green.* The tides of change were beginning to shift the balance of power in the league. The scars were starting to heal.

And finally as this season began with 5-time NBA champion Steve Kerr at the helm all that championship talk seemed less and less abstract. Maybe, just maybe in 2, 3 or perhaps 4 years we could sniff the promised land of that elusive Larry O’Brien trophy. After racing out to the best record in the NBA and a 16 game winning streak, the Warriors looked as if their championship plans were not only real, but being fast-tracked.

And now here we are; on the eve of the first NBA finals game to be played in the Bay Area in 39 years. While the rational side of me knows that the Warriors are favored in many circles, the scars of my inner fan still sting and prevent me from being over-confident.

 

The Match Up

There are three main reasons that this match up is especially hard to preview this year. First of all the two regular season meetings between the teams were not accurate representations of who these teams are now and are therefore not a reliable source of predictions. Secondly, the Cavs hardly look like the team they were in the regular season due to injuries and personnel changes. Finally the Cavs and the Warriors have both more or less steam-rolled their way through the playoffs, with a combined record of 24-5. Both have looked like they are head and shoulders above the competition. Yet the quality of the competition they have faced is drastically different. Like the age-old problem of comparing apples and oranges; how can we compare these two teams’ recent success against each other when they are playing in different leagues (in more ways than one).

Losing Kevin Love, and having a hobbled Kyrie Irving has changed the Cavs starting line up and rotation tremendously. The loss of two of the Cavs “big three” has altered their play in both expected and unexpected ways. With Love on the bench and Irving in limited minutes the Cavs have gone from a league average to an elite defense. Playing solid (not flashy) defense is an often over-looked aspect of the NBA game- as it is very hard to quantify and doesn’t show up on fantasy stat lines. Irving and Love both are below average defenders, and their rotational replacements Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are all plus defenders and high-energy players. The Cavs offense has also grown much more predictable. In the Hawks series they essentially ran Lebron James isolation after isolation until the Hawks eventually sent double teams at which point they whipped the ball around the perimeter until they found the open 3-point shooter. Surprisingly, without Love and a limited Irving the Cavs’ 3-point shooting against the Hawks went up from the regular season (from 37% to 40%). Heading into the finals, the Cavs look energized.

During the playoffs the Warriors, on the other hand, have played pretty much as they have all year. Their defense remains the centerpiece of the team with the offense coming in irregular, and unstoppable torrents. From the 39-point 4^th quarter to force overtime against the Pelicans in the first round to a 35-point 2^nd quarter in the close-out game against the Rockets, the Warriors are like a cloud during monsoon season. It’s only a matter of time before they open up and make it rain.

What is different about this Warriors team this post season is that it has demonstrated its true depth and versatility against three different opponents- beating all three convincingly and using many different styles to do so. Against the Pelicans the Dubs played closest to their default regular season style. They didn’t do anything exotic defensively relying on a mix of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to shut down Anthony Davis. They effectively used small lineups with Draymond at center to rip off huge runs and build up insurmountable leads. Then against Memphis they changed gears- playing big lineups more frequently and matching the Grizzlies large post presence with more usage of bench bigs David Lee and Festus Ezeli. They also showed their ability to game plan on the fly with the famous “Tony Allen adjustment” (borrowed from the Spurs) that effectively changed the entire make up of the series. Against the Rockets they experimented again; starting with their traditional rotations (going small frequently) then ended the series with a Game 5, which saw them play a traditional center (either Bogut or Ezeli) for the entire 48 minutes.

While this series is a lot more than just Lebron against Steph, these two will dictate for the most part how the series plays out. The Cavs will blitz Steph- throwing traps and double-teams his way in order to minimize his threat and dare the rest of the Dubs to step up and score. For the Warriors the focus will be to slow down Lebron without allowing shooters to get open on the perimeter or the Thompson-Timofey Mozgov two-headed offensive rebounding monster to exploit them.

As both teams present match up problems for each other, coaching adjustments will be frequent in this series. I give a massive edge here to the Warriors, as the brain trust of Steve Kerr, Ron Adams and Alvin Gentry are going to be able to out-scheme the Cavs rookie head coach Lebron James.

So Who Wins?

Nate Silver correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states in the last presidential election. He has created a statistical model to compare NBA teams over history. I won’t get into his methods, but the short of it is that the Warriors are currently ranked significantly higher than the Cavs. The Warriors are actually ranked up there with some of the 90s Bulls teams.

Every time I turn on ESPN they are running a statistic about how the Warriors are “only one of 7 teams to ever ______(fill in the blank)__________ and each of the other 6 has won a title”. Point differential, strength of schedule, and efficiency ratings are on our side. So why don’t I feel confident?

Probably because the best basketball player on the planet is on the other side, and it’s impossible to stop the human freight train that is Lebron James. And then there are always those scars. Those years of futility haunting us. Our collective insecurity when people like Charles Barkely dismiss us as a “jump shooting team” and laugh off our chances at a title.

And then I think of Steph. And I think of Dray. And of Klay and Harrison and Andrew. And Iggy, and D.Lee and Livingston, and Blurbosa and Festus. And then I remember that basketball is a team game. And while the Cavs have the best player on the planet, we have the best team on the planet. By a long shot. And I feel better.

Thanks to our 67 regular season wins and this post season run, the scars have almost healed. Four more wins and it will be like they were never there.

 

Prediction: Warriors in 6

 

History Repeats Itself (Hopefully)

February 19, 2015

Tomorrow night the Warriors will be playing their first game after the All-Star break. Their opponents will be a San Antonio Spurs team that will be on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Warriors will have had a full 8 days of rest (excluding the Splash Bros. & coaching staff) and will be playing one of two teams that have beaten them on their home court this season. If Spurs coach Greg Popovich dares to roll the dice and play his aging big-3, despite his usual routine of resting them on the second game of back to backs, this game could be a preview of a playoff match-up. It certainly holds big implications for the Warriors in terms of a hurdle that they have been attempting to surmount the past few years.

Recently my friend DT compared The Warriors Vs. Spurs matchup to the epic late 80s/early 90s clashes between the Celtics, Pistons and Bulls. It took Chuck Daly, Isaiah Thomas and co. several bouts with a dynastic Boston Squad before they could climb the mountain and arise out of the East. While on their way to winning three Eastern Conference titles and two NBA Championships they served as the foil for Michael Jordan’s ascendant Bulls teams.

While the Warriors didn’t go down to the Spurs in the playoffs last year, there are more than a few parallels here. The Warriors- as the Pistons and Bulls were- are the young team on the rise, anchored by an All-Star back court and front court role players. The Warriors- like the Pistons-are a based around elite defensive play and other-wordly team chemistry. There is no Michael Jordan here, but Steph Curry can certainly draw some Isaiah Thomas comparisons (despite his being 1000 times more likable and fan friendly). Klay Thompson is the remix version of Joe Dumars; an elite two way guard who has the innate ability to score, lock down opposing stars, and at the same time seem completely emotionless while doing so.

The Spurs are certainly akin to those Celtics teams. Several hall of famers, churning out title after title, every year refusing to let father time wear them down.

Chuck Daly joined the Pistons in 1983. He made the playoffs every year he coached the team. It took him 4 years to reach the Eastern finals, 5 to reach the NBA finals, and 6 to win a championship. Those Piston teams began with Isaiah Thomas, Bill Lambier and Vinnie Johnson as core players around which were added key role players and eventual stars like John Sally, Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars.

Phil Jackson, on the other hand took over a fully developed Bulls team complete with a nucleus of Jordan and Scottie Pippen with role players like Craig Hodges, Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright already in place. Phil took the short route to success- achieving the Eastern finals his first year and an NBA title in his second.

If I was to make an analogy here with Warriors coach Steve Kerr, at this point it has to be with Phil Jackson. Whatever the future holds for the Warriors this year and for Kerr’s tenure in the next few years, he has assumed the head coaching position of a fully developed team complete with stars and willing role players. This is much more reminiscent of Jackson’s situation than Daly’s. With today’s rules around the salary cap and free agency, Daly’s six year window may not be realistic for Kerr anyhow.

There are several other ironies, however, that do not match up. Kerr was a teammate of the Spurs’ big-3 and helped them to win a title in 2003. He served under and was mentored by both Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich. Part of the Warriors’ offensive turn-around this year has been Kerr’s implementation of Spurs-like ball movement, with an emphasis on off-ball screens and making the extra pass to create the most efficient shot possible.

As a student of history I want to predict that this will finally be the year that the upstart Warriors will topple the aging Spurs to conquer the West and take a crack at their first title (like the 1988 Pistons or the 1991 Bulls). Unfortunately there are several other factors involved. Despite the Spurs recent dominance, this season the Memphis Grizzlies are probably the Warriors toughest competition. If the playoff seedings stay as they are today the Grizz and Warriors will be the top two seeds, and would seemingly be on a collision course to deciding Western Conference dominance once and for all.

However the chips may fall in May and June, this season has already been a surprise and a success for the Warriors. As other teams scramble at the trade deadline, and the Western Conference mirrors the late 80s Cold War nuclear arms race, the Warriors are standing pat and not making any moves. Content to build on their first half success (42-9!), keep working on the their fundamentals (turnovers!), and continue to utilize a shifting rotation that Kerr has adeptly applied in order to get the absolute most out of each and every role player on the team.

At this point the future looks bright. I like the Warriors chances for a title in the next few years going forward. If history repeats itself- as it often does- the Warriors ascendency to the top of the NBA pile should take place soon enough.

posted by eL Dogg

Klay Thompson’s Video Game 3rd Quarter

…or “An Emotional Journey Through the NBA’s record for points in a quarter.”

The 3rd quarter started on depressing note. The Warriors came out of the locker room with a middling 5 point lead over a sub-par Sacramento Kings squad. Darren Collison started things off by hitting a 3 pointer and dishing an assist to Derrick Williams. Draymond and Bogut tossed up a couple of bricks before Boogie Cousins hit a baseline floater to put the Kings up by two points.

One minute in this 3rd quarter didn’t fit this season’s narrative. The Warriors have been absolutely murdering sub .500 teams- and the 3rd quarter is usually when they give the knockout blow. As I slowly sipped my Big Daddy IPA, I was anticipating an explosion, but nothing could prepare me for what happened next.

I’ve never seen anything like it in real life. It reminded me of when I visited my friend’s house who owned the NBA Jam video game that I’d never played. Before I knew what hit me I was down 100 points in the second quarter, trying to figure out what the “X-button” did, why his shots kept going in every single time, or what “He’s on Fire!” meant. Tonight Klay turned that video game into reality.

Steph stemmed the tide of Sacramento’s onslaught with a drive to the lane- a foul and two free throws. The two teams then went back and forth a few times and the score remained tied, until 9:44 to go, when Klay began his path to making history.

• 9:44 (2 points.)- The Warriors are in their half court and haven’t hit a field goal up to this point. Klay takes the bull by the horns and initiates a drive in on his man- Ben McLemore (ohh poor Ben, this is where the abuse starts). Klay pulls up right inside the free throw line as Ben flies past, bumping into Cousins. Klay puts in an easy uncontested close range jumper. “He’s Heating Up” 
• 8:21 (5)- Klay steals a pass to his man in the corner, leads the fast break, runs right up to the top of the three point line, stops, Tip-Toes up to the line, jumps straight up and sinks a three. No celebration. No reaction. Business. Just Business, sir.
• 7:14 (8)- Off a Williams miss from the corner, Steph grabs the rebound and initiates the break. As he has done a thousand times before, Steph strangles the entire right side of the floor with the threat of his pull-up, while his partner in crime takes the left wing. Steph finds Klay for a pull up three. SPLASH! A hint of a minor reaction can be seen on Klay’s face after the shot. A feint glimmer of a smile. Nothing more than a hint. This is what we do. We ball hard. We smoke teams. We’re the splash brothers. Klay saunters over to the bench all business. Takes a few high fives in stride and sits calmly, quietly. As small puffs of smoke are observed to rise off of his shoulders from the stands. “He’s Getting Hot!”
• 6:04(10). Curry has now missed 3 shots in the quarter and turned the ball over twice. The score is 66-64, but despite having the lead the Warriors look out of whack offensively. All except Klay that is. Bogut makes a block, Barnes outlets to Klay who forwards ahead to Curry in the open floor with Klay speeding down the right lane, and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another failed alley-oop attempt? The Warriors Lob-City usually ends in a pass about 3 feet too high sailing out of bounds, but not this one. Not in this quarter. Curry takes a little off the pass this time and it’s perfect, Klay only needs one hand to flush it down. “HE’S ON FIRE!!!!!!” The Splash brothers jog back on D, nonchalantly, as the entire crowd at Oracle Arena stands up.

• 5:32 (13) The lead is still only 2, but it might as well be 100. Sacramento is fiddling with their controller trying to find what the X-button does, as Klay calmly dribbles twice around the perimeter before stepping back for a 3 over Stauskus. At this point, Curry isn’t even looking for his own shot- or anybody else’s for that matter. Klay is the offense. And there is nothing anyone on the Kings can do about it. Klay runs back. Still no smile. No high fives. All business. Stone. Cold. Assassin.
• 4:57 (16) Klay has the ball three feet behind the 3 point line. Draymond is at the line. Klay points down as if to signal for Dray to set the screen, everyone waits for Dray- then Klay jumps straight up and fires off a 26 footer, and Stauskus and Oracle, and Dray and Klay and everyone else watching the game has no doubt. The crowd is on their feet. The animated Warriors bench mob of Barbosa, Speights and Livinstone are out on the court- falling all over themselves. Oracle’s foundations are beginning to shake. The referee literally stops play. It’s almost as if Klay’s last shot has lit the nets on fire and they have to wait to put them out. Sacramento is on the ropes. Klay allows himself to slap five with a teammate. Still no smile. No emotion. Gotta keep it together Klay. I can’t let them see me react. I have to keep it cool man. Ice Cold baby. Ice Cold.
• 4:19 (19) Catch and shoot 3 off a curl. Stauskus is baffled. The fans are standing after every shot. Let the video games begin.
• Klay posts up Ray McCallum on the elbow. He finds Draymond for a wide open layup. Even when he’s this hot he still finds the open man, makes the right play, stays within himself. Ice Cold Baby. Ice Cold. After the play a timeout is called and Klay shows his first emotion of the quarter leaping to celebrate with the bench mob. Cracks in the glacier. Klay’s emotions about to burst forth.
• 3:03 (22)Curry finds Klay on the right wing coming off a curl from a D. Lee down screen. Klay doesn’t have that much space and the shot hits the front of the rim. Then it bounces ever so gently off the glass and down into the cylinder. Klay affords us a genuine smile as he runs back down the court. The moment is getting to him. He can’t help it.
• 2:30 (24) Klay runs out on a break and drives the lane- pulling 4 of the 5 Sacramento defenders to him. It’s all good, let me bust a Klay-up real quick. You fools really thought I was nothing but a jump-shooter huh?!?

• 

  Swagg on a hundred trillion

  2:06 (27) Steph comes up with a steel and it’s another break. Only this time there isn’t really much thought. All 10 players on the court and all 19,596 fans know where this is going. Steph to Klay on the right wing for three. All Net. All Roaracle. All Klay. All-Star. And Klay’s got his tounge out. And his swag is on a hundred trillion. And all those thoughts about keeping it cool are OUT THE WINDOW BAYBAY-BAYBAY!!! And did I mention the entire arena is on their feet? And the lead is now 17. And there is no looking back.

• 1:37 (29) Forget Steph! D.Lee outlets the rebound straight to Klay. Forget a screen! Klay waives off Draymond past the arc. Forget a defender! Klay dribbles into the key and pulls up over the entire Kings Franchise. Swish! Try and stop me now! I’M ON FIRE!!!!  Klay highfives Lee and is as juiced up as he’s ever been in his NBA career. Pumping his fist and yelling. Real. Raw. Emotions. All it took was 29 points on 11 shots to get there. And we’re not done yet.
• 1:06 (32) Lee to Steph. On the break he thinks about it. Fakes at the 3-point line, then reconsiders. The context, the situation, it would only be right. This is a team that is all about letting the next man shine. And he does, and when Klay hits the off balance flat footed 3 from the corner, it’s all Stauskus can do but put his hands up, totally perplexed. He can’t find the X-button on his controller, and Klay happens to own the game.
• Klay is shaking his head in disbelief. He’s pounding his chest. He’s doing the Ric Flair “WOOOO!”. He’s making a B-line for the bench mob. He’s getting slapped on the ass by Bogut. The entire arena is worshipping at the Church of Splash tonight.  He’s taking a breather. Emotionally and physically drained. But it can’t stop now. We need to beat this game.
  WE HAVE THE CHEAT CODE!

• 0:35 (35) D.Lee and Draymond create a modified version of the picket fence screen play at the free throw line and open Klay up for an easy catch and shoot 3. The whole team is in on it now. They’re riding this wave as long as it’ll take them. There’s no come down from a high this sweet.
• Ramon Sessions loses the ball on the ensuing possession and Klay dribbles the length of the floor as Justin Holiday sneaks into the lane,  and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another alley-oop? No. Another failed Alley-oop attempt. The ball sails past Holiday, and is turned over. It’s OK, Klay. You’ll work on that in the off season.
• 0:04 (37) As he crosses half-court, he’s fouled lightly and his NBA record setting 36th and 37th points come at the free throw line. A mellow end to the quarter. The charred remains of the net are replaced during the TV timeout.

Klay takes his seat on the bench and his place in the record books. An emotional roller coaster. He looks exhausted, elated and genuinely happy. The fire has melted the ice. Klay smiles and gives his teammates daps. Early tomorrow he’ll be back the gym, taking thousands upon thousands of jump shots. Like he does every day. All business. All the time. That’s Klay.

Posted by eL Dogg. Friday January 23, 2015

The Best Trade the Warriors Can Make…

January 19, 2015

Over the past two months, the Western Conference has seen major personal movement among the top contenders. Dallas acquired Rajon Rondo, the Rockets added both Corey Brewer and Josh Smith and more recently the Grizzlies got Jeff Green. Reportedly the Thunder are hot on the heels of Brook Lopez, and more likely than not there will be a few more major pieces moving around before the February 19th trade deadline. Impact players like Wilson Chandler, Aaron Afflalo, Deron Williams, Lance Stephenson and Jose Calderon are being actively shopped around by teams who have already packed in any hope of reaching the post season and would prefer to move up in the draft and dump salary.

What should the Warriors do? Should we take this opportunity to dump salary so that we can re-sign our young front court duo of Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green next offseason (see previous post). Should we add another big, to sure up a defensive presence during Bogut and Ezeli’s inevitable stretch of missed games? Are we being left behind while other teams are adding pieces to solidify themselves for playoff basketball? In order to answer these questions and contemplate the Warriors best option is moving forward, I’d like to quickly analyze the impact of the other big moves that teams have made so far.

Dallas Mavericks: On December 18th when the Mavericks sent Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson and two draft picks to the Celtics in a trade that netted them Rajon Rondo & Dwight Powell. On the surface this looked like a huge splash of a trade. Most casual fans of the NBA remember Rondo for his dominant post season performances against the Lakers in the Finals and the Heat in the Celtics’ last series of playoff relevance. What they fail to recognize, however, is that the Rondo of our memories is gone. Rondo is now in his 9th season. The last full season he played was the strike shortened 2011-2012 campaign. Since then he’s missed large portions of two seasons, and seen his production fall off in most major categories. While he is still only 28, he will be a free agent and most likely expect close to a max deal. He’s basically a high priced rental that Mark Cuban hopes he can convince to resettle in the Lone Star state. When the trade was made the Mavs were 14-6 and had the highest rated offense in the NBA. While they are still highest in offensive efficiency as of today, they are 14-7 after the trade. They are currently tied for the 4th seed with the Rockets.

This trade was supposed to make a huge splash, but I don’t feel any water The Mavericks are still only a middle of the pack defensive team ranking 16 of 30 in defensive efficiency. The memories of Rondo outplay the reality. Of the 8 teams who currently qualify for playoff spots in the West 5 have point guards who are superior to Rondo (Curry, Lillard, Connely, Parker, Paul). While Rondo is a huge improvement on Jameer Nelson, he hasn’t made their offense any better than when Nelson was at the helm. Things have worked out better than expected between Rondo and Monta Ellis in terms of offensive chemistry, but what about what the Mavs gave up? Jae Crowder is a solid wing defender and Brandan Wright is an athletic big-man who was leading the NBA in field goal percentage. Neither were essential pieces, but both fit nicely into Carlisle’s system. Clearly Wright knew his role well enough to rarely take a shot he couldn’t make. It took the coaching staff and players real effort to integrate Rondo’s ball dominant and poor shooting court into their already fluid offensive scheme. I’m not sure this trade made Dallas measurably better, and it may end up costing them in the long run.

Houston Rockets: The thinking behind adding Corey Brewer is obvious. Brewer’s skill set is a perfect match for McHale’s current system. He hustles, pushes the ball, plays relentless defense, and spaces the floor very well, as he is an excellent spot up 3 point shooter-especially from the corner. Josh Smith, however, is a mystery. He can’t space the floor. He pushes the ball but at a much slower and clumsy pace than any of the Rocket’s backcourt players. His defense used to be elite. But that was two teams ago. Josh Smith is literally the worst 3 point shooter in NBA history. The Pistons immediately underwent an entire franchise turn-around since he was released. Since he landed in Houston the Rockets are 9-6, compared with 20-7 before he arrived. Some of this is accounted for with strength of schedule, but again I’m not seeing how Josh Smith has had a positive impact on this team. He began by starting the first 4 games and has since found a role as a bench player, averaging 23 minutes a game, with 10.6 points on 43% shooting (including 21% from 3). While he is contributing on defense with 0.9 blocks and 5.3 rebounds, he’s also turning the ball over 2.7 times a game.

As with Rondo, I think about what the Rockets game up to add Smith. While Josh came to the Rockets after being released from the Pistons, the Rockets still had to release back-up Center Tarik Black to make room for Smith. Black is clearly not as productive a player- but he is also a lot less redundant than Smith given the rest of the Rockets roster. If the past 4 seasons are any indication, Dwight Howard will miss quite a few mid-season games due to various maladies. During these stretches in the early Spring, Black’s physical presence in the post will be missed more than GM Darryl Morrey anticipated in December when he got greedy and added Smith to a roster that had no place for him.

Josh Smith doesn’t make the Rockets a better team and he doesn’t fit into their over-all scheme on offense. Ultimately this move will end up hurting the team as a less efficient player is now taking away minutes from players who were increasing their efficiency as the year progressed. The Rockets cohesion has also suffered.

Memphis Grizzlies: A week ago, the Grizzlies traded away Quincy Pondexter,  Tayshaun Prince’s ghost, and a few draft picks in a three team deal that brought them Jeff Green. This trade is very fresh thus and more difficult to evaluate. At first glance it seems like a massive upgrade to go from Prince’s ghost to the actual physical presence on the wing of Green. This move was made with the theory that the Grizzlies were one wing scorer away from making a Championship run. They thought that Courtney Lee would be that guy this year, but he hasn’t turned out to solve all of their problems yet. Memphis ranks 9th in Offensive efficiency and 11th on defense. With their style of play they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs and will no doubt contend for the Western Conference title. Is Jeff Green the answer? Not unless you can find a way to combine his offensive skills with Tony Allen’s defense into one body. I do think this was a savvy move, however, as the Grizzlies identified a specific area of weakness and improved their team without much long term sacrifice.

And now to the Warriors. The difference between each team above and the Dubs is that there really isn’t any identifiable need that the Warriors are looking to fill. Today they played 13 guys against the Nuggets in a game they won by 43 points. All 13 players scored. The Warriors don’t need to acquire any players, because Kerr is barely able to find enough time to play all of the players that he currently has. Ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and #3 on offense, the Warriors haven’t shown a single real weakness (besides health) all season. Not to say they won’t- but at this point they haven’t.

This brings up another point. Making major moves decreases team cohesion. The Warriors core roster has been together for three years now and they made no major moves during this past off season. Of the 5 Warrior starters, the 4 young guys are all having career years. This is from playing together, and playing in a cohesive system. Instead of having to re-learn major schemes, the Warriors can now spend their practice time improving their fundamentals. For Klay Thompson than means he can work on his moves to the hoop. For Steph Curry, that means he can work on his on-ball defense and fighting through screens. Both of these players have taken major strides in these areas over the past twelve months. Even though they have the best record in the NBA, I believe that we haven’t seen this team’s best basketball yet.

So for now the answer is obvious, the best trade the Warriors can make is no trade at all.

Posted by eL Dogg

Un-Like-Lee

With the emergence of Draymond Green this season we must revisit the David Lee conundrum. I like Lee, in the same way I liked Troy Murphy, Antawn Jamison, and Joe Smith before him, as effective, nice-guy scorers on ineffective, mediocre teams. But the current Warriors are far superior to those clubs, and likability in sports can be a detriment. Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson bring a chippiness, stubbornness, and pouty arrogance, respectively, that would annoy me in a pickup game, but which serve there purpose for an aspiring champion. Lee’s been our token All-Star and he’s besties with Steph Curry, but he’s also grown accustom to bad teams and stat-stuffing. So what is his current role and value, and what are the Warriors options for him?

Lee’s league-wide value is trending down–he’s been injury prone, his stats are declining, and his shooting touch and knack for rebounds have left him. Trading him now–while clearing cap space that could be paired with other moves to make an offseason run at a Marc Gasol and/or resigning Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes–will not net equal return value. Despite the excitement and novelty of all this year’s in-season transactions, basketball is much more of a team game than a sport like baseball, where midseason moves are more common and effective, largely due to the individualized match-ups and specialization that are inherent to that game. Basketball teams take much longer to gel and even the shrewdest trades (Monta Ellis for Bogut; Speedy Claxton for Baron Davis) can take years to fully develop and rarely equal same season success.

With all this in mind, I’m against moving Lee, not because he’s a fan-favorite or for loyalty’s sake, but due to his depleted value and the ineffectiveness of in-season NBA trades. Best case scenario: continue bringing him off the bench as hopefully the instant-offense compliment to defensive sub stalwarts Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and Festus Ezeli; get him touches and shots early and often (see the recent Indiana Pacers game) to get his feel and confidence going; and finally, play him big minutes against inferior teams or match-ups in order to inflate his stats and value for the chances of an offseason trade. This might not seem like the kindest treatment of a franchise fixture, but the road to a championship isn’t about making friends, and in sports, we all know where nice guys finish.

posted by: DT

January 12, 2015

The Case for Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes must go.

“Trading Barnes is our only way to open up cap space to re-sign Draymond.”

“We’ve got to get rid of Barnes now, while he’s at his peak trade value.”

“Harrison will never grown into the player we expected him to be.”

The above quotes summarize the basic sentiments of the increasingly vocal Harrison Barnes nay-saying contigent. Juxtapose that with the rawest athleticism on the entire Warriors team- as evidenced by the Black Falcon’s monster dunk pictured above and Warrior fans are left with a serious quandary; what should happen with Barnes moving forward? I’m here to make a stand and make a case for keeping Harrison Barnes as an essential piece of our team moving forward.

As of January 10th during his 3rd NBA season Barnes is averaging 10.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 30.4 minutes per game. He’s started all 34 games so far, despite suffering a broken nose. Drafted in the same year as Draymond Green, the two players are often compared- with Draymond coming out as the clear fan favorite. There is no denying that Dray is having a better season than Barnes on both ends of the floor, and has a much bigger overall impact on the court. Green has also improved much more dramatically throughout his career going from a rookie season that saw him playing limited minutes and averaging 2.9 points and 3.3 rebounds per game to this season’s  averages of 11.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg and 3.4 apg.

Comparing the growth of Draymond and Harrison, however, doesn’t do justice to either player and pulls attention from some serious strides that Barnes has made this year. Clearly Barnes entered the NBA much more ready than Green. His athleticism, ball handling, and finishing around the hoop was good enough to convince Mark Jackson to start him in 81 games as a rookie. Last year MJax’s theory of having Barnes “lead the second unit” turned out to be very detrimental to Harrison’s growth. His stats all plummeted, and his game didn’t pass the eye test either. His shot selection turned ugly, as he exchanged his slashing, penetrating style for mid-range pull ups, and post up’s that seemed to go nowhere.

This season has seen Barnes’ offensive game turn a corner. Under Stever Kerr’s system his abilities are being utilized effectively. The Black Falcon has been soaring at Oracle; he leads the team in dunks this year with 30. His 3-point shot has also reached new heights, as he is hitting 44% beyond the arc. This year Barnes has abandoned isolation plays in favor of back-cuts and spot up corner 3’s. These are much more efficient shots and this is reflected in his over field goal percentage which has climbed to 50.6%- up from a career low of 39.9% last year.

Barnes is actively engaged on both ends of the floor this year- playing excellent ma- to-man and help defense. He is actively rebounding and making the type of hustle plays that seemed more rare last year. According to Jim Barnett he is actively involved with the coaching staff- breaking down tape and analyzing where he can improve his game. Barnes is an intellectual player- and while he sometimes comes off as emotionless, his personality fits in well on a team that plays for each other and without ego.

What we have learned so far from the aborted Klay Thompson-Kevin Love trade this summer is that sometimes your best move is to stick with the roster that you have. That seems to be the general thinking behind GM Bob Meyers current view of the roster, and I hope he keeps it that way. The current rotation has great chemistry and young players like Barnes and Green are improving on almost a nightly basis. They are also improving within an effective system that Kerr and assistants Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams have only begun to implement this season. To trade Barnes away and open up cap space for re-signing Green would be a huge mistake. Barnes and Green will continue to grow together under this system and will make a perfect front court compliment to the Splash Brothers. If last night’s thrashing of the Cleveland Cavaliers was any indication, the Warriors young duo will be linking up for many more alley-oops to come.

posted by eL Dogg

January 10, 2015