NBA Finals Preview

A preview of the 2015 NBA Finals

By: Leon Sultan

History Matters

This Thursday night at Oracle the Warriors will play the Cavaliers for the NBA title. Let that sink in for a moment. The Warriors, the NBA title. I keep waiting for my alarm clock to ring and wake me up.

Growing up as a fan of the Dubs, the idea of a championship has always been spurious. When the Joe Lacob group bought this team and began the rebuilding process talk of building a “championship culture” was bandied about. Steph Curry was drafted, Mark Jackson was brought in. But any mention of a championship still sounded like the aspirational babble of a deluded motivational speaker. I remember Mark Jackson guaranteeing a playoff birth during his first year. “Yeah right, good luck with that” said my inner Warrior fan.

Then again, my inner Warrior fan carries many scars. The scars from when my favorite player had to be suspended and then released for choking the coach. The scars from watching the number one over-all pick, the future of the franchise, be traded for Tom Gugliota after only one season. The scars of drafting Anthony Randolph two spots ahead of Roy Hibbert, and Brandan Wright one spot ahead of Joakim Noah. The unforgivable scars of trading a hall-of-famer to Sacramento for Billy Owens, then missing the playoffs every year but one since 1994.

And then we traded away Monta and it was Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber and Latrell Sprewell all over again. But then it wasn’t. Mark Jackson followed up his first season disappointment with 47 wins, the 6^th seed and a first round upset of the Nuggets. Our drafts were no longer filling our rosters with the likes of Patrick O’Bryant, and Ike Diogu. Instead we were outfoxing the rest of the league drafting future stars; Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green.* The tides of change were beginning to shift the balance of power in the league. The scars were starting to heal.

And finally as this season began with 5-time NBA champion Steve Kerr at the helm all that championship talk seemed less and less abstract. Maybe, just maybe in 2, 3 or perhaps 4 years we could sniff the promised land of that elusive Larry O’Brien trophy. After racing out to the best record in the NBA and a 16 game winning streak, the Warriors looked as if their championship plans were not only real, but being fast-tracked.

And now here we are; on the eve of the first NBA finals game to be played in the Bay Area in 39 years. While the rational side of me knows that the Warriors are favored in many circles, the scars of my inner fan still sting and prevent me from being over-confident.

 

The Match Up

There are three main reasons that this match up is especially hard to preview this year. First of all the two regular season meetings between the teams were not accurate representations of who these teams are now and are therefore not a reliable source of predictions. Secondly, the Cavs hardly look like the team they were in the regular season due to injuries and personnel changes. Finally the Cavs and the Warriors have both more or less steam-rolled their way through the playoffs, with a combined record of 24-5. Both have looked like they are head and shoulders above the competition. Yet the quality of the competition they have faced is drastically different. Like the age-old problem of comparing apples and oranges; how can we compare these two teams’ recent success against each other when they are playing in different leagues (in more ways than one).

Losing Kevin Love, and having a hobbled Kyrie Irving has changed the Cavs starting line up and rotation tremendously. The loss of two of the Cavs “big three” has altered their play in both expected and unexpected ways. With Love on the bench and Irving in limited minutes the Cavs have gone from a league average to an elite defense. Playing solid (not flashy) defense is an often over-looked aspect of the NBA game- as it is very hard to quantify and doesn’t show up on fantasy stat lines. Irving and Love both are below average defenders, and their rotational replacements Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are all plus defenders and high-energy players. The Cavs offense has also grown much more predictable. In the Hawks series they essentially ran Lebron James isolation after isolation until the Hawks eventually sent double teams at which point they whipped the ball around the perimeter until they found the open 3-point shooter. Surprisingly, without Love and a limited Irving the Cavs’ 3-point shooting against the Hawks went up from the regular season (from 37% to 40%). Heading into the finals, the Cavs look energized.

During the playoffs the Warriors, on the other hand, have played pretty much as they have all year. Their defense remains the centerpiece of the team with the offense coming in irregular, and unstoppable torrents. From the 39-point 4^th quarter to force overtime against the Pelicans in the first round to a 35-point 2^nd quarter in the close-out game against the Rockets, the Warriors are like a cloud during monsoon season. It’s only a matter of time before they open up and make it rain.

What is different about this Warriors team this post season is that it has demonstrated its true depth and versatility against three different opponents- beating all three convincingly and using many different styles to do so. Against the Pelicans the Dubs played closest to their default regular season style. They didn’t do anything exotic defensively relying on a mix of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to shut down Anthony Davis. They effectively used small lineups with Draymond at center to rip off huge runs and build up insurmountable leads. Then against Memphis they changed gears- playing big lineups more frequently and matching the Grizzlies large post presence with more usage of bench bigs David Lee and Festus Ezeli. They also showed their ability to game plan on the fly with the famous “Tony Allen adjustment” (borrowed from the Spurs) that effectively changed the entire make up of the series. Against the Rockets they experimented again; starting with their traditional rotations (going small frequently) then ended the series with a Game 5, which saw them play a traditional center (either Bogut or Ezeli) for the entire 48 minutes.

While this series is a lot more than just Lebron against Steph, these two will dictate for the most part how the series plays out. The Cavs will blitz Steph- throwing traps and double-teams his way in order to minimize his threat and dare the rest of the Dubs to step up and score. For the Warriors the focus will be to slow down Lebron without allowing shooters to get open on the perimeter or the Thompson-Timofey Mozgov two-headed offensive rebounding monster to exploit them.

As both teams present match up problems for each other, coaching adjustments will be frequent in this series. I give a massive edge here to the Warriors, as the brain trust of Steve Kerr, Ron Adams and Alvin Gentry are going to be able to out-scheme the Cavs rookie head coach Lebron James.

So Who Wins?

Nate Silver correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states in the last presidential election. He has created a statistical model to compare NBA teams over history. I won’t get into his methods, but the short of it is that the Warriors are currently ranked significantly higher than the Cavs. The Warriors are actually ranked up there with some of the 90s Bulls teams.

Every time I turn on ESPN they are running a statistic about how the Warriors are “only one of 7 teams to ever ______(fill in the blank)__________ and each of the other 6 has won a title”. Point differential, strength of schedule, and efficiency ratings are on our side. So why don’t I feel confident?

Probably because the best basketball player on the planet is on the other side, and it’s impossible to stop the human freight train that is Lebron James. And then there are always those scars. Those years of futility haunting us. Our collective insecurity when people like Charles Barkely dismiss us as a “jump shooting team” and laugh off our chances at a title.

And then I think of Steph. And I think of Dray. And of Klay and Harrison and Andrew. And Iggy, and D.Lee and Livingston, and Blurbosa and Festus. And then I remember that basketball is a team game. And while the Cavs have the best player on the planet, we have the best team on the planet. By a long shot. And I feel better.

Thanks to our 67 regular season wins and this post season run, the scars have almost healed. Four more wins and it will be like they were never there.

 

Prediction: Warriors in 6

 

Keys To The Castle: A Warriors Playoff Checklist

 Maintenance

1. Maintain best conference/league record–This one seems as obvious as saying the key to the championship is winning the most games, but it’s slightly more involved than that. Oracle Arena, formerly the Coliseum and better known now as Roaracle, is arguably the league’s biggest home court advantage, and not due to dynamic design (as proposed in Mission Bay), Hollywood theater lighting, or Northwest-style noise-piping, but because of the hardscrabble fan-base, forged in shared agony, who don’t need teleprompting to get on their feet after a slow first quarter start, razz an opposing player’s airball/flop or ref’s blown call, or endorse Steph Curry’s MVP candidacy while at the charity stripe (especially on national TV). The more games you can feed these championship-rabid fans, the better chance of advancing.

2. Maintain health– Another Warriors bugaboo, but how they achieve it is the rub. Spur-adically resting starters and main contributors seems most obvious, and not just the injury-prone stalwarts–Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala–but also the able-bodied Splash Bros–Curry and Klay Thompson–so as to avoid the mental and physical fatigue seen heading into the All-Star break. But along with maintaining health, it’s equally important to preserve sharpness, particularly for Bogut. It’s a fine line to walk between resting enough to avoid injury and exhaustion and yet still retaining touch, fluidity, and continuity, all while sacrificing the least amount of wins possible. Bogut is the key because although he’s the most fragile and therefore needs the most rest, he’s also the half-court offensive facilitator and needs to be in rhythm with the rest of the offensive flow, like the bass in a jazz ensemble–and like many maestros, he can be moody, and it’s up to Kerr and the staff to orchestrate keeping him motivated and focused.

3. Button down offensive order: Players who should be initiating offense–

Always: Curry, Bogut, Klay

Sometimes: Lee, Barbosa, Barnes, Green, Holiday

Never: Speights, Iguodala, Livingston

(Neverevereverever): Rush, Ezeli, Kuzmić

4. Second half/playoff player projections–

The Starters

Bogut: See above.

Curry: Monitor minutes, increase assists per game while decreasing point average–The Warriors function best when Steph is facilitating and involving teammates, who in turn aren’t just watching him and forcing him to do everything himself.

Thompson: Drives lead to jumpers–Klay’s set shot is devastating but can be a touch streaky, especially when he gets stubborn and it’s all the defense has to worry about. About midway through the first half when he was winning multiple player-of-the-week awards and scoring out of his mind, Klay was developing a solid swoop to the hoop where he either beat his man because he was over-aggressively denying the jumper, or putting the breaks on once he hit the key, letting the defender fly by (Goose and Maverick-style!), and putting in a soft one-handed hanger.

Harrison Barnes: Rebound, rebound, rebound–Harrison has untapped potential, but his full game isn’t there yet and shouldn’t be rushed, especially on a title-contender. The Warriors get the most out of him when he is hustling for boards, active on defense, and canning corner 3s–without further development he projects nicely as Bruce Bowen 2.0.

Draymond Green: Soft touch–As coach Steve Kerr says, Green’s the heartbeat of this team, and while his all-out aggression can be frustrating in the form of technicals and repeated mistakes (constantly jumping at pump fakes), it also inspires his teammates to new heights and allows him to play well above his listed size. However, one thing he can improve by tweaking (not sacrificing) his aggression is his shooting touch around the hoop. Jim Barnett harps on this during the broadcasts, but instead of going at the hoop so hard on drives and cuts and trying to finish strong every time, Green’d be best served to use pump fakes and softer/trickier release points around the rim, similar to the way Curry has immensely improved his finishing this year.

The Point/Guards

Iguodala: Less is more–Iggy’s recent three-point success is a bonus and is always welcomed within the flow of the offense, but he makes his best contributions away from the ball–cutting off drivers, closing down passing lanes, and deflecting balls in order to initiate fast-breaks, as well as mentoring and being a team spokesman and leader. Although he’s an offensive Jack-of-all-trades, at this point in his career, he’s a master of none, and I would severely limit his ball-handling and decision-making duties.

Shaun Livingston: Iggy Jr.–The Warriors two ostensible back-up point guards (Livingston and Iguodala) are surprising shaky ball-handlers and decision-makers. Livingston, in particular, needs to stick to his strengths, which are long, knowledgable defense and offensive post-ups, with the occasional drive and pull-up, but generally keep the ball moving on offense with much less dribbling and thinking.

Leandro Barbosa: The Bra-zilian zapper–Unlike his counterparts Liv and Iggy, The Blur is instant offensive off the bench, similar to Vinnie Johnson’s Microwaving ability to score early, often, and unpredictably back in the day. I prefer Barbosa on the drive and quick release while limiting the jumpers and ditching the pretense of PG passing.

Justin Holiday: Curry Light–When discussing Green earlier, I brazenly suggested that all he had to do was finish like Curry–obviously that’s much easier said than done. Similarly, while Holiday has nowhere near the touch, range, drive, or finish of Curry, he can be successful by borrowing from Curry’s bag of tricks–namely, spot-up threes and harassing on-ball defense. If Holiday can consistently do those two things off the end of the bench, he too can be like Steph!

The Bench Bigs

David Lee: Separating the garbage, recycling, and compost–I’ve been waiting for D.Lee to either regain his shooting touch or increase his trade value during extended garbage-time run, but neither has happened and the deadline has passed. Well it’s time to shit or get off the pot–he either needs to salvage his spin moves and release around the rim and fifteen feet extended to make up for his crappy defense, or it’s a lost cause.

Marreese Speights: Catch-and-release and tip monster–Mo-Bucket$ needs to regain his early season scoring prowess by catching and shooting instead of pausing, pumping, or [shudder] driving; staying active on the offensive boards; and moderating his floppy defense.

Festus Ezeli: Expand Ezeli–The Warr need to figure out a way to keep Ezeli healthy and extend his minutes in order to evaluate his post-injury abilities within Kerr’s system and integrate him into the team flow for when the eventual Bogut/Lee injury hits.

Posted by DT on February 24, 2015

History Repeats Itself (Hopefully)

February 19, 2015

Tomorrow night the Warriors will be playing their first game after the All-Star break. Their opponents will be a San Antonio Spurs team that will be on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Warriors will have had a full 8 days of rest (excluding the Splash Bros. & coaching staff) and will be playing one of two teams that have beaten them on their home court this season. If Spurs coach Greg Popovich dares to roll the dice and play his aging big-3, despite his usual routine of resting them on the second game of back to backs, this game could be a preview of a playoff match-up. It certainly holds big implications for the Warriors in terms of a hurdle that they have been attempting to surmount the past few years.

Recently my friend DT compared The Warriors Vs. Spurs matchup to the epic late 80s/early 90s clashes between the Celtics, Pistons and Bulls. It took Chuck Daly, Isaiah Thomas and co. several bouts with a dynastic Boston Squad before they could climb the mountain and arise out of the East. While on their way to winning three Eastern Conference titles and two NBA Championships they served as the foil for Michael Jordan’s ascendant Bulls teams.

While the Warriors didn’t go down to the Spurs in the playoffs last year, there are more than a few parallels here. The Warriors- as the Pistons and Bulls were- are the young team on the rise, anchored by an All-Star back court and front court role players. The Warriors- like the Pistons-are a based around elite defensive play and other-wordly team chemistry. There is no Michael Jordan here, but Steph Curry can certainly draw some Isaiah Thomas comparisons (despite his being 1000 times more likable and fan friendly). Klay Thompson is the remix version of Joe Dumars; an elite two way guard who has the innate ability to score, lock down opposing stars, and at the same time seem completely emotionless while doing so.

The Spurs are certainly akin to those Celtics teams. Several hall of famers, churning out title after title, every year refusing to let father time wear them down.

Chuck Daly joined the Pistons in 1983. He made the playoffs every year he coached the team. It took him 4 years to reach the Eastern finals, 5 to reach the NBA finals, and 6 to win a championship. Those Piston teams began with Isaiah Thomas, Bill Lambier and Vinnie Johnson as core players around which were added key role players and eventual stars like John Sally, Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars.

Phil Jackson, on the other hand took over a fully developed Bulls team complete with a nucleus of Jordan and Scottie Pippen with role players like Craig Hodges, Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright already in place. Phil took the short route to success- achieving the Eastern finals his first year and an NBA title in his second.

If I was to make an analogy here with Warriors coach Steve Kerr, at this point it has to be with Phil Jackson. Whatever the future holds for the Warriors this year and for Kerr’s tenure in the next few years, he has assumed the head coaching position of a fully developed team complete with stars and willing role players. This is much more reminiscent of Jackson’s situation than Daly’s. With today’s rules around the salary cap and free agency, Daly’s six year window may not be realistic for Kerr anyhow.

There are several other ironies, however, that do not match up. Kerr was a teammate of the Spurs’ big-3 and helped them to win a title in 2003. He served under and was mentored by both Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich. Part of the Warriors’ offensive turn-around this year has been Kerr’s implementation of Spurs-like ball movement, with an emphasis on off-ball screens and making the extra pass to create the most efficient shot possible.

As a student of history I want to predict that this will finally be the year that the upstart Warriors will topple the aging Spurs to conquer the West and take a crack at their first title (like the 1988 Pistons or the 1991 Bulls). Unfortunately there are several other factors involved. Despite the Spurs recent dominance, this season the Memphis Grizzlies are probably the Warriors toughest competition. If the playoff seedings stay as they are today the Grizz and Warriors will be the top two seeds, and would seemingly be on a collision course to deciding Western Conference dominance once and for all.

However the chips may fall in May and June, this season has already been a surprise and a success for the Warriors. As other teams scramble at the trade deadline, and the Western Conference mirrors the late 80s Cold War nuclear arms race, the Warriors are standing pat and not making any moves. Content to build on their first half success (42-9!), keep working on the their fundamentals (turnovers!), and continue to utilize a shifting rotation that Kerr has adeptly applied in order to get the absolute most out of each and every role player on the team.

At this point the future looks bright. I like the Warriors chances for a title in the next few years going forward. If history repeats itself- as it often does- the Warriors ascendency to the top of the NBA pile should take place soon enough.

posted by eL Dogg