NBA Finals Preview

A preview of the 2015 NBA Finals

By: Leon Sultan

History Matters

This Thursday night at Oracle the Warriors will play the Cavaliers for the NBA title. Let that sink in for a moment. The Warriors, the NBA title. I keep waiting for my alarm clock to ring and wake me up.

Growing up as a fan of the Dubs, the idea of a championship has always been spurious. When the Joe Lacob group bought this team and began the rebuilding process talk of building a “championship culture” was bandied about. Steph Curry was drafted, Mark Jackson was brought in. But any mention of a championship still sounded like the aspirational babble of a deluded motivational speaker. I remember Mark Jackson guaranteeing a playoff birth during his first year. “Yeah right, good luck with that” said my inner Warrior fan.

Then again, my inner Warrior fan carries many scars. The scars from when my favorite player had to be suspended and then released for choking the coach. The scars from watching the number one over-all pick, the future of the franchise, be traded for Tom Gugliota after only one season. The scars of drafting Anthony Randolph two spots ahead of Roy Hibbert, and Brandan Wright one spot ahead of Joakim Noah. The unforgivable scars of trading a hall-of-famer to Sacramento for Billy Owens, then missing the playoffs every year but one since 1994.

And then we traded away Monta and it was Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber and Latrell Sprewell all over again. But then it wasn’t. Mark Jackson followed up his first season disappointment with 47 wins, the 6^th seed and a first round upset of the Nuggets. Our drafts were no longer filling our rosters with the likes of Patrick O’Bryant, and Ike Diogu. Instead we were outfoxing the rest of the league drafting future stars; Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green.* The tides of change were beginning to shift the balance of power in the league. The scars were starting to heal.

And finally as this season began with 5-time NBA champion Steve Kerr at the helm all that championship talk seemed less and less abstract. Maybe, just maybe in 2, 3 or perhaps 4 years we could sniff the promised land of that elusive Larry O’Brien trophy. After racing out to the best record in the NBA and a 16 game winning streak, the Warriors looked as if their championship plans were not only real, but being fast-tracked.

And now here we are; on the eve of the first NBA finals game to be played in the Bay Area in 39 years. While the rational side of me knows that the Warriors are favored in many circles, the scars of my inner fan still sting and prevent me from being over-confident.

 

The Match Up

There are three main reasons that this match up is especially hard to preview this year. First of all the two regular season meetings between the teams were not accurate representations of who these teams are now and are therefore not a reliable source of predictions. Secondly, the Cavs hardly look like the team they were in the regular season due to injuries and personnel changes. Finally the Cavs and the Warriors have both more or less steam-rolled their way through the playoffs, with a combined record of 24-5. Both have looked like they are head and shoulders above the competition. Yet the quality of the competition they have faced is drastically different. Like the age-old problem of comparing apples and oranges; how can we compare these two teams’ recent success against each other when they are playing in different leagues (in more ways than one).

Losing Kevin Love, and having a hobbled Kyrie Irving has changed the Cavs starting line up and rotation tremendously. The loss of two of the Cavs “big three” has altered their play in both expected and unexpected ways. With Love on the bench and Irving in limited minutes the Cavs have gone from a league average to an elite defense. Playing solid (not flashy) defense is an often over-looked aspect of the NBA game- as it is very hard to quantify and doesn’t show up on fantasy stat lines. Irving and Love both are below average defenders, and their rotational replacements Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are all plus defenders and high-energy players. The Cavs offense has also grown much more predictable. In the Hawks series they essentially ran Lebron James isolation after isolation until the Hawks eventually sent double teams at which point they whipped the ball around the perimeter until they found the open 3-point shooter. Surprisingly, without Love and a limited Irving the Cavs’ 3-point shooting against the Hawks went up from the regular season (from 37% to 40%). Heading into the finals, the Cavs look energized.

During the playoffs the Warriors, on the other hand, have played pretty much as they have all year. Their defense remains the centerpiece of the team with the offense coming in irregular, and unstoppable torrents. From the 39-point 4^th quarter to force overtime against the Pelicans in the first round to a 35-point 2^nd quarter in the close-out game against the Rockets, the Warriors are like a cloud during monsoon season. It’s only a matter of time before they open up and make it rain.

What is different about this Warriors team this post season is that it has demonstrated its true depth and versatility against three different opponents- beating all three convincingly and using many different styles to do so. Against the Pelicans the Dubs played closest to their default regular season style. They didn’t do anything exotic defensively relying on a mix of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to shut down Anthony Davis. They effectively used small lineups with Draymond at center to rip off huge runs and build up insurmountable leads. Then against Memphis they changed gears- playing big lineups more frequently and matching the Grizzlies large post presence with more usage of bench bigs David Lee and Festus Ezeli. They also showed their ability to game plan on the fly with the famous “Tony Allen adjustment” (borrowed from the Spurs) that effectively changed the entire make up of the series. Against the Rockets they experimented again; starting with their traditional rotations (going small frequently) then ended the series with a Game 5, which saw them play a traditional center (either Bogut or Ezeli) for the entire 48 minutes.

While this series is a lot more than just Lebron against Steph, these two will dictate for the most part how the series plays out. The Cavs will blitz Steph- throwing traps and double-teams his way in order to minimize his threat and dare the rest of the Dubs to step up and score. For the Warriors the focus will be to slow down Lebron without allowing shooters to get open on the perimeter or the Thompson-Timofey Mozgov two-headed offensive rebounding monster to exploit them.

As both teams present match up problems for each other, coaching adjustments will be frequent in this series. I give a massive edge here to the Warriors, as the brain trust of Steve Kerr, Ron Adams and Alvin Gentry are going to be able to out-scheme the Cavs rookie head coach Lebron James.

So Who Wins?

Nate Silver correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states in the last presidential election. He has created a statistical model to compare NBA teams over history. I won’t get into his methods, but the short of it is that the Warriors are currently ranked significantly higher than the Cavs. The Warriors are actually ranked up there with some of the 90s Bulls teams.

Every time I turn on ESPN they are running a statistic about how the Warriors are “only one of 7 teams to ever ______(fill in the blank)__________ and each of the other 6 has won a title”. Point differential, strength of schedule, and efficiency ratings are on our side. So why don’t I feel confident?

Probably because the best basketball player on the planet is on the other side, and it’s impossible to stop the human freight train that is Lebron James. And then there are always those scars. Those years of futility haunting us. Our collective insecurity when people like Charles Barkely dismiss us as a “jump shooting team” and laugh off our chances at a title.

And then I think of Steph. And I think of Dray. And of Klay and Harrison and Andrew. And Iggy, and D.Lee and Livingston, and Blurbosa and Festus. And then I remember that basketball is a team game. And while the Cavs have the best player on the planet, we have the best team on the planet. By a long shot. And I feel better.

Thanks to our 67 regular season wins and this post season run, the scars have almost healed. Four more wins and it will be like they were never there.

 

Prediction: Warriors in 6

 

Keys To The Castle: A Warriors Playoff Checklist

 Maintenance

1. Maintain best conference/league record–This one seems as obvious as saying the key to the championship is winning the most games, but it’s slightly more involved than that. Oracle Arena, formerly the Coliseum and better known now as Roaracle, is arguably the league’s biggest home court advantage, and not due to dynamic design (as proposed in Mission Bay), Hollywood theater lighting, or Northwest-style noise-piping, but because of the hardscrabble fan-base, forged in shared agony, who don’t need teleprompting to get on their feet after a slow first quarter start, razz an opposing player’s airball/flop or ref’s blown call, or endorse Steph Curry’s MVP candidacy while at the charity stripe (especially on national TV). The more games you can feed these championship-rabid fans, the better chance of advancing.

2. Maintain health– Another Warriors bugaboo, but how they achieve it is the rub. Spur-adically resting starters and main contributors seems most obvious, and not just the injury-prone stalwarts–Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala–but also the able-bodied Splash Bros–Curry and Klay Thompson–so as to avoid the mental and physical fatigue seen heading into the All-Star break. But along with maintaining health, it’s equally important to preserve sharpness, particularly for Bogut. It’s a fine line to walk between resting enough to avoid injury and exhaustion and yet still retaining touch, fluidity, and continuity, all while sacrificing the least amount of wins possible. Bogut is the key because although he’s the most fragile and therefore needs the most rest, he’s also the half-court offensive facilitator and needs to be in rhythm with the rest of the offensive flow, like the bass in a jazz ensemble–and like many maestros, he can be moody, and it’s up to Kerr and the staff to orchestrate keeping him motivated and focused.

3. Button down offensive order: Players who should be initiating offense–

Always: Curry, Bogut, Klay

Sometimes: Lee, Barbosa, Barnes, Green, Holiday

Never: Speights, Iguodala, Livingston

(Neverevereverever): Rush, Ezeli, Kuzmić

4. Second half/playoff player projections–

The Starters

Bogut: See above.

Curry: Monitor minutes, increase assists per game while decreasing point average–The Warriors function best when Steph is facilitating and involving teammates, who in turn aren’t just watching him and forcing him to do everything himself.

Thompson: Drives lead to jumpers–Klay’s set shot is devastating but can be a touch streaky, especially when he gets stubborn and it’s all the defense has to worry about. About midway through the first half when he was winning multiple player-of-the-week awards and scoring out of his mind, Klay was developing a solid swoop to the hoop where he either beat his man because he was over-aggressively denying the jumper, or putting the breaks on once he hit the key, letting the defender fly by (Goose and Maverick-style!), and putting in a soft one-handed hanger.

Harrison Barnes: Rebound, rebound, rebound–Harrison has untapped potential, but his full game isn’t there yet and shouldn’t be rushed, especially on a title-contender. The Warriors get the most out of him when he is hustling for boards, active on defense, and canning corner 3s–without further development he projects nicely as Bruce Bowen 2.0.

Draymond Green: Soft touch–As coach Steve Kerr says, Green’s the heartbeat of this team, and while his all-out aggression can be frustrating in the form of technicals and repeated mistakes (constantly jumping at pump fakes), it also inspires his teammates to new heights and allows him to play well above his listed size. However, one thing he can improve by tweaking (not sacrificing) his aggression is his shooting touch around the hoop. Jim Barnett harps on this during the broadcasts, but instead of going at the hoop so hard on drives and cuts and trying to finish strong every time, Green’d be best served to use pump fakes and softer/trickier release points around the rim, similar to the way Curry has immensely improved his finishing this year.

The Point/Guards

Iguodala: Less is more–Iggy’s recent three-point success is a bonus and is always welcomed within the flow of the offense, but he makes his best contributions away from the ball–cutting off drivers, closing down passing lanes, and deflecting balls in order to initiate fast-breaks, as well as mentoring and being a team spokesman and leader. Although he’s an offensive Jack-of-all-trades, at this point in his career, he’s a master of none, and I would severely limit his ball-handling and decision-making duties.

Shaun Livingston: Iggy Jr.–The Warriors two ostensible back-up point guards (Livingston and Iguodala) are surprising shaky ball-handlers and decision-makers. Livingston, in particular, needs to stick to his strengths, which are long, knowledgable defense and offensive post-ups, with the occasional drive and pull-up, but generally keep the ball moving on offense with much less dribbling and thinking.

Leandro Barbosa: The Bra-zilian zapper–Unlike his counterparts Liv and Iggy, The Blur is instant offensive off the bench, similar to Vinnie Johnson’s Microwaving ability to score early, often, and unpredictably back in the day. I prefer Barbosa on the drive and quick release while limiting the jumpers and ditching the pretense of PG passing.

Justin Holiday: Curry Light–When discussing Green earlier, I brazenly suggested that all he had to do was finish like Curry–obviously that’s much easier said than done. Similarly, while Holiday has nowhere near the touch, range, drive, or finish of Curry, he can be successful by borrowing from Curry’s bag of tricks–namely, spot-up threes and harassing on-ball defense. If Holiday can consistently do those two things off the end of the bench, he too can be like Steph!

The Bench Bigs

David Lee: Separating the garbage, recycling, and compost–I’ve been waiting for D.Lee to either regain his shooting touch or increase his trade value during extended garbage-time run, but neither has happened and the deadline has passed. Well it’s time to shit or get off the pot–he either needs to salvage his spin moves and release around the rim and fifteen feet extended to make up for his crappy defense, or it’s a lost cause.

Marreese Speights: Catch-and-release and tip monster–Mo-Bucket$ needs to regain his early season scoring prowess by catching and shooting instead of pausing, pumping, or [shudder] driving; staying active on the offensive boards; and moderating his floppy defense.

Festus Ezeli: Expand Ezeli–The Warr need to figure out a way to keep Ezeli healthy and extend his minutes in order to evaluate his post-injury abilities within Kerr’s system and integrate him into the team flow for when the eventual Bogut/Lee injury hits.

Posted by DT on February 24, 2015

Klay Thompson’s Video Game 3rd Quarter

…or “An Emotional Journey Through the NBA’s record for points in a quarter.”

The 3rd quarter started on depressing note. The Warriors came out of the locker room with a middling 5 point lead over a sub-par Sacramento Kings squad. Darren Collison started things off by hitting a 3 pointer and dishing an assist to Derrick Williams. Draymond and Bogut tossed up a couple of bricks before Boogie Cousins hit a baseline floater to put the Kings up by two points.

One minute in this 3rd quarter didn’t fit this season’s narrative. The Warriors have been absolutely murdering sub .500 teams- and the 3rd quarter is usually when they give the knockout blow. As I slowly sipped my Big Daddy IPA, I was anticipating an explosion, but nothing could prepare me for what happened next.

I’ve never seen anything like it in real life. It reminded me of when I visited my friend’s house who owned the NBA Jam video game that I’d never played. Before I knew what hit me I was down 100 points in the second quarter, trying to figure out what the “X-button” did, why his shots kept going in every single time, or what “He’s on Fire!” meant. Tonight Klay turned that video game into reality.

Steph stemmed the tide of Sacramento’s onslaught with a drive to the lane- a foul and two free throws. The two teams then went back and forth a few times and the score remained tied, until 9:44 to go, when Klay began his path to making history.

• 9:44 (2 points.)- The Warriors are in their half court and haven’t hit a field goal up to this point. Klay takes the bull by the horns and initiates a drive in on his man- Ben McLemore (ohh poor Ben, this is where the abuse starts). Klay pulls up right inside the free throw line as Ben flies past, bumping into Cousins. Klay puts in an easy uncontested close range jumper. “He’s Heating Up” 
• 8:21 (5)- Klay steals a pass to his man in the corner, leads the fast break, runs right up to the top of the three point line, stops, Tip-Toes up to the line, jumps straight up and sinks a three. No celebration. No reaction. Business. Just Business, sir.
• 7:14 (8)- Off a Williams miss from the corner, Steph grabs the rebound and initiates the break. As he has done a thousand times before, Steph strangles the entire right side of the floor with the threat of his pull-up, while his partner in crime takes the left wing. Steph finds Klay for a pull up three. SPLASH! A hint of a minor reaction can be seen on Klay’s face after the shot. A feint glimmer of a smile. Nothing more than a hint. This is what we do. We ball hard. We smoke teams. We’re the splash brothers. Klay saunters over to the bench all business. Takes a few high fives in stride and sits calmly, quietly. As small puffs of smoke are observed to rise off of his shoulders from the stands. “He’s Getting Hot!”
• 6:04(10). Curry has now missed 3 shots in the quarter and turned the ball over twice. The score is 66-64, but despite having the lead the Warriors look out of whack offensively. All except Klay that is. Bogut makes a block, Barnes outlets to Klay who forwards ahead to Curry in the open floor with Klay speeding down the right lane, and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another failed alley-oop attempt? The Warriors Lob-City usually ends in a pass about 3 feet too high sailing out of bounds, but not this one. Not in this quarter. Curry takes a little off the pass this time and it’s perfect, Klay only needs one hand to flush it down. “HE’S ON FIRE!!!!!!” The Splash brothers jog back on D, nonchalantly, as the entire crowd at Oracle Arena stands up.

• 5:32 (13) The lead is still only 2, but it might as well be 100. Sacramento is fiddling with their controller trying to find what the X-button does, as Klay calmly dribbles twice around the perimeter before stepping back for a 3 over Stauskus. At this point, Curry isn’t even looking for his own shot- or anybody else’s for that matter. Klay is the offense. And there is nothing anyone on the Kings can do about it. Klay runs back. Still no smile. No high fives. All business. Stone. Cold. Assassin.
• 4:57 (16) Klay has the ball three feet behind the 3 point line. Draymond is at the line. Klay points down as if to signal for Dray to set the screen, everyone waits for Dray- then Klay jumps straight up and fires off a 26 footer, and Stauskus and Oracle, and Dray and Klay and everyone else watching the game has no doubt. The crowd is on their feet. The animated Warriors bench mob of Barbosa, Speights and Livinstone are out on the court- falling all over themselves. Oracle’s foundations are beginning to shake. The referee literally stops play. It’s almost as if Klay’s last shot has lit the nets on fire and they have to wait to put them out. Sacramento is on the ropes. Klay allows himself to slap five with a teammate. Still no smile. No emotion. Gotta keep it together Klay. I can’t let them see me react. I have to keep it cool man. Ice Cold baby. Ice Cold.
• 4:19 (19) Catch and shoot 3 off a curl. Stauskus is baffled. The fans are standing after every shot. Let the video games begin.
• Klay posts up Ray McCallum on the elbow. He finds Draymond for a wide open layup. Even when he’s this hot he still finds the open man, makes the right play, stays within himself. Ice Cold Baby. Ice Cold. After the play a timeout is called and Klay shows his first emotion of the quarter leaping to celebrate with the bench mob. Cracks in the glacier. Klay’s emotions about to burst forth.
• 3:03 (22)Curry finds Klay on the right wing coming off a curl from a D. Lee down screen. Klay doesn’t have that much space and the shot hits the front of the rim. Then it bounces ever so gently off the glass and down into the cylinder. Klay affords us a genuine smile as he runs back down the court. The moment is getting to him. He can’t help it.
• 2:30 (24) Klay runs out on a break and drives the lane- pulling 4 of the 5 Sacramento defenders to him. It’s all good, let me bust a Klay-up real quick. You fools really thought I was nothing but a jump-shooter huh?!?

• 

  Swagg on a hundred trillion

  2:06 (27) Steph comes up with a steel and it’s another break. Only this time there isn’t really much thought. All 10 players on the court and all 19,596 fans know where this is going. Steph to Klay on the right wing for three. All Net. All Roaracle. All Klay. All-Star. And Klay’s got his tounge out. And his swag is on a hundred trillion. And all those thoughts about keeping it cool are OUT THE WINDOW BAYBAY-BAYBAY!!! And did I mention the entire arena is on their feet? And the lead is now 17. And there is no looking back.

• 1:37 (29) Forget Steph! D.Lee outlets the rebound straight to Klay. Forget a screen! Klay waives off Draymond past the arc. Forget a defender! Klay dribbles into the key and pulls up over the entire Kings Franchise. Swish! Try and stop me now! I’M ON FIRE!!!!  Klay highfives Lee and is as juiced up as he’s ever been in his NBA career. Pumping his fist and yelling. Real. Raw. Emotions. All it took was 29 points on 11 shots to get there. And we’re not done yet.
• 1:06 (32) Lee to Steph. On the break he thinks about it. Fakes at the 3-point line, then reconsiders. The context, the situation, it would only be right. This is a team that is all about letting the next man shine. And he does, and when Klay hits the off balance flat footed 3 from the corner, it’s all Stauskus can do but put his hands up, totally perplexed. He can’t find the X-button on his controller, and Klay happens to own the game.
• Klay is shaking his head in disbelief. He’s pounding his chest. He’s doing the Ric Flair “WOOOO!”. He’s making a B-line for the bench mob. He’s getting slapped on the ass by Bogut. The entire arena is worshipping at the Church of Splash tonight.  He’s taking a breather. Emotionally and physically drained. But it can’t stop now. We need to beat this game.
  WE HAVE THE CHEAT CODE!

• 0:35 (35) D.Lee and Draymond create a modified version of the picket fence screen play at the free throw line and open Klay up for an easy catch and shoot 3. The whole team is in on it now. They’re riding this wave as long as it’ll take them. There’s no come down from a high this sweet.
• Ramon Sessions loses the ball on the ensuing possession and Klay dribbles the length of the floor as Justin Holiday sneaks into the lane,  and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another alley-oop? No. Another failed Alley-oop attempt. The ball sails past Holiday, and is turned over. It’s OK, Klay. You’ll work on that in the off season.
• 0:04 (37) As he crosses half-court, he’s fouled lightly and his NBA record setting 36th and 37th points come at the free throw line. A mellow end to the quarter. The charred remains of the net are replaced during the TV timeout.

Klay takes his seat on the bench and his place in the record books. An emotional roller coaster. He looks exhausted, elated and genuinely happy. The fire has melted the ice. Klay smiles and gives his teammates daps. Early tomorrow he’ll be back the gym, taking thousands upon thousands of jump shots. Like he does every day. All business. All the time. That’s Klay.

Posted by eL Dogg. Friday January 23, 2015

The Case for Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes must go.

“Trading Barnes is our only way to open up cap space to re-sign Draymond.”

“We’ve got to get rid of Barnes now, while he’s at his peak trade value.”

“Harrison will never grown into the player we expected him to be.”

The above quotes summarize the basic sentiments of the increasingly vocal Harrison Barnes nay-saying contigent. Juxtapose that with the rawest athleticism on the entire Warriors team- as evidenced by the Black Falcon’s monster dunk pictured above and Warrior fans are left with a serious quandary; what should happen with Barnes moving forward? I’m here to make a stand and make a case for keeping Harrison Barnes as an essential piece of our team moving forward.

As of January 10th during his 3rd NBA season Barnes is averaging 10.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 30.4 minutes per game. He’s started all 34 games so far, despite suffering a broken nose. Drafted in the same year as Draymond Green, the two players are often compared- with Draymond coming out as the clear fan favorite. There is no denying that Dray is having a better season than Barnes on both ends of the floor, and has a much bigger overall impact on the court. Green has also improved much more dramatically throughout his career going from a rookie season that saw him playing limited minutes and averaging 2.9 points and 3.3 rebounds per game to this season’s  averages of 11.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg and 3.4 apg.

Comparing the growth of Draymond and Harrison, however, doesn’t do justice to either player and pulls attention from some serious strides that Barnes has made this year. Clearly Barnes entered the NBA much more ready than Green. His athleticism, ball handling, and finishing around the hoop was good enough to convince Mark Jackson to start him in 81 games as a rookie. Last year MJax’s theory of having Barnes “lead the second unit” turned out to be very detrimental to Harrison’s growth. His stats all plummeted, and his game didn’t pass the eye test either. His shot selection turned ugly, as he exchanged his slashing, penetrating style for mid-range pull ups, and post up’s that seemed to go nowhere.

This season has seen Barnes’ offensive game turn a corner. Under Stever Kerr’s system his abilities are being utilized effectively. The Black Falcon has been soaring at Oracle; he leads the team in dunks this year with 30. His 3-point shot has also reached new heights, as he is hitting 44% beyond the arc. This year Barnes has abandoned isolation plays in favor of back-cuts and spot up corner 3’s. These are much more efficient shots and this is reflected in his over field goal percentage which has climbed to 50.6%- up from a career low of 39.9% last year.

Barnes is actively engaged on both ends of the floor this year- playing excellent ma- to-man and help defense. He is actively rebounding and making the type of hustle plays that seemed more rare last year. According to Jim Barnett he is actively involved with the coaching staff- breaking down tape and analyzing where he can improve his game. Barnes is an intellectual player- and while he sometimes comes off as emotionless, his personality fits in well on a team that plays for each other and without ego.

What we have learned so far from the aborted Klay Thompson-Kevin Love trade this summer is that sometimes your best move is to stick with the roster that you have. That seems to be the general thinking behind GM Bob Meyers current view of the roster, and I hope he keeps it that way. The current rotation has great chemistry and young players like Barnes and Green are improving on almost a nightly basis. They are also improving within an effective system that Kerr and assistants Alvin Gentry and Ron Adams have only begun to implement this season. To trade Barnes away and open up cap space for re-signing Green would be a huge mistake. Barnes and Green will continue to grow together under this system and will make a perfect front court compliment to the Splash Brothers. If last night’s thrashing of the Cleveland Cavaliers was any indication, the Warriors young duo will be linking up for many more alley-oops to come.

posted by eL Dogg

January 10, 2015