NBA Finals Preview

A preview of the 2015 NBA Finals

By: Leon Sultan

History Matters

This Thursday night at Oracle the Warriors will play the Cavaliers for the NBA title. Let that sink in for a moment. The Warriors, the NBA title. I keep waiting for my alarm clock to ring and wake me up.

Growing up as a fan of the Dubs, the idea of a championship has always been spurious. When the Joe Lacob group bought this team and began the rebuilding process talk of building a “championship culture” was bandied about. Steph Curry was drafted, Mark Jackson was brought in. But any mention of a championship still sounded like the aspirational babble of a deluded motivational speaker. I remember Mark Jackson guaranteeing a playoff birth during his first year. “Yeah right, good luck with that” said my inner Warrior fan.

Then again, my inner Warrior fan carries many scars. The scars from when my favorite player had to be suspended and then released for choking the coach. The scars from watching the number one over-all pick, the future of the franchise, be traded for Tom Gugliota after only one season. The scars of drafting Anthony Randolph two spots ahead of Roy Hibbert, and Brandan Wright one spot ahead of Joakim Noah. The unforgivable scars of trading a hall-of-famer to Sacramento for Billy Owens, then missing the playoffs every year but one since 1994.

And then we traded away Monta and it was Mitch Richmond and Chris Webber and Latrell Sprewell all over again. But then it wasn’t. Mark Jackson followed up his first season disappointment with 47 wins, the 6^th seed and a first round upset of the Nuggets. Our drafts were no longer filling our rosters with the likes of Patrick O’Bryant, and Ike Diogu. Instead we were outfoxing the rest of the league drafting future stars; Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green.* The tides of change were beginning to shift the balance of power in the league. The scars were starting to heal.

And finally as this season began with 5-time NBA champion Steve Kerr at the helm all that championship talk seemed less and less abstract. Maybe, just maybe in 2, 3 or perhaps 4 years we could sniff the promised land of that elusive Larry O’Brien trophy. After racing out to the best record in the NBA and a 16 game winning streak, the Warriors looked as if their championship plans were not only real, but being fast-tracked.

And now here we are; on the eve of the first NBA finals game to be played in the Bay Area in 39 years. While the rational side of me knows that the Warriors are favored in many circles, the scars of my inner fan still sting and prevent me from being over-confident.

 

The Match Up

There are three main reasons that this match up is especially hard to preview this year. First of all the two regular season meetings between the teams were not accurate representations of who these teams are now and are therefore not a reliable source of predictions. Secondly, the Cavs hardly look like the team they were in the regular season due to injuries and personnel changes. Finally the Cavs and the Warriors have both more or less steam-rolled their way through the playoffs, with a combined record of 24-5. Both have looked like they are head and shoulders above the competition. Yet the quality of the competition they have faced is drastically different. Like the age-old problem of comparing apples and oranges; how can we compare these two teams’ recent success against each other when they are playing in different leagues (in more ways than one).

Losing Kevin Love, and having a hobbled Kyrie Irving has changed the Cavs starting line up and rotation tremendously. The loss of two of the Cavs “big three” has altered their play in both expected and unexpected ways. With Love on the bench and Irving in limited minutes the Cavs have gone from a league average to an elite defense. Playing solid (not flashy) defense is an often over-looked aspect of the NBA game- as it is very hard to quantify and doesn’t show up on fantasy stat lines. Irving and Love both are below average defenders, and their rotational replacements Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are all plus defenders and high-energy players. The Cavs offense has also grown much more predictable. In the Hawks series they essentially ran Lebron James isolation after isolation until the Hawks eventually sent double teams at which point they whipped the ball around the perimeter until they found the open 3-point shooter. Surprisingly, without Love and a limited Irving the Cavs’ 3-point shooting against the Hawks went up from the regular season (from 37% to 40%). Heading into the finals, the Cavs look energized.

During the playoffs the Warriors, on the other hand, have played pretty much as they have all year. Their defense remains the centerpiece of the team with the offense coming in irregular, and unstoppable torrents. From the 39-point 4^th quarter to force overtime against the Pelicans in the first round to a 35-point 2^nd quarter in the close-out game against the Rockets, the Warriors are like a cloud during monsoon season. It’s only a matter of time before they open up and make it rain.

What is different about this Warriors team this post season is that it has demonstrated its true depth and versatility against three different opponents- beating all three convincingly and using many different styles to do so. Against the Pelicans the Dubs played closest to their default regular season style. They didn’t do anything exotic defensively relying on a mix of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green to shut down Anthony Davis. They effectively used small lineups with Draymond at center to rip off huge runs and build up insurmountable leads. Then against Memphis they changed gears- playing big lineups more frequently and matching the Grizzlies large post presence with more usage of bench bigs David Lee and Festus Ezeli. They also showed their ability to game plan on the fly with the famous “Tony Allen adjustment” (borrowed from the Spurs) that effectively changed the entire make up of the series. Against the Rockets they experimented again; starting with their traditional rotations (going small frequently) then ended the series with a Game 5, which saw them play a traditional center (either Bogut or Ezeli) for the entire 48 minutes.

While this series is a lot more than just Lebron against Steph, these two will dictate for the most part how the series plays out. The Cavs will blitz Steph- throwing traps and double-teams his way in order to minimize his threat and dare the rest of the Dubs to step up and score. For the Warriors the focus will be to slow down Lebron without allowing shooters to get open on the perimeter or the Thompson-Timofey Mozgov two-headed offensive rebounding monster to exploit them.

As both teams present match up problems for each other, coaching adjustments will be frequent in this series. I give a massive edge here to the Warriors, as the brain trust of Steve Kerr, Ron Adams and Alvin Gentry are going to be able to out-scheme the Cavs rookie head coach Lebron James.

So Who Wins?

Nate Silver correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states in the last presidential election. He has created a statistical model to compare NBA teams over history. I won’t get into his methods, but the short of it is that the Warriors are currently ranked significantly higher than the Cavs. The Warriors are actually ranked up there with some of the 90s Bulls teams.

Every time I turn on ESPN they are running a statistic about how the Warriors are “only one of 7 teams to ever ______(fill in the blank)__________ and each of the other 6 has won a title”. Point differential, strength of schedule, and efficiency ratings are on our side. So why don’t I feel confident?

Probably because the best basketball player on the planet is on the other side, and it’s impossible to stop the human freight train that is Lebron James. And then there are always those scars. Those years of futility haunting us. Our collective insecurity when people like Charles Barkely dismiss us as a “jump shooting team” and laugh off our chances at a title.

And then I think of Steph. And I think of Dray. And of Klay and Harrison and Andrew. And Iggy, and D.Lee and Livingston, and Blurbosa and Festus. And then I remember that basketball is a team game. And while the Cavs have the best player on the planet, we have the best team on the planet. By a long shot. And I feel better.

Thanks to our 67 regular season wins and this post season run, the scars have almost healed. Four more wins and it will be like they were never there.

 

Prediction: Warriors in 6

 

Livingston, I Presume!

I’ve been disparaging Shaun Livingston all year because he appears to fit so closely with the Warriors recent trend of acquiring touted yet underwhelming back-up point guards. Going back to Acie Law, the Warr have consistently plucked from free agency, drafted, or traded for PGs that are either past their prime or ineffective. The strategy’s always sound in theory (an insurance policy for either the eventual Steph Curry injury or to limit his minutes to avoid said ailment), but in practice the results have been frustratingly mixed.

 

Since the start of the Curry era in ’09-’10, there’s been the archetypes of the quintessential back-up PG (C.J. Watson), the defense-first PG (Raja Bell), and the caretaker PG (Law). Instead of sticking with Watson’s essentialism, they settled on caretakers (Law and the egregiously amnestied Charlie Bell) and gym-rats (Jeremy Lin) in ’10-’11. In ’11-’12, it was more concierges (Charles Jenkins and Ish Smith) and the ignitable yet inconsistent Krypto-Nate Robinson. Two years ago (’12-’13) they finally returned to the Watsonian consistency of a capable back-up in Jarrett Jack (ball-pounding, hoggish warts and all) as well as a budding archetype: the long-limbed defender (Kent Bazemore). And then there was last year (’13-’14)–the culmination of everything that’s gone wrong with the Warr’s back-up backcourt. Toney Douglas was brought in to provide undersized defense to a bench that needed the exact opposite; that mistake was compounded by the overreactive additions of two score-first PGs (Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks) who didn’t actually score consistently; and finally a return to the post-prime curator (Steve Blake), all the while with the Serbian Derrick Rose (Nemanja Nedovic) planted to the bench and Kent Bazemoring along side it.

Call it Elementary My Dear (C.J.) Watson, Murphy’s (Acie) Law, For Whom The (Raja/Charlie) Bell Tolls, or You Don’t Know (Jarrett) Jack–just forgive my apprehension when the Warr signed a hobbled, inconsistent PG with negligible handles and passing ability (who I always confused with Randy Livingston by name and Darius Miles by size and former team, and both by debilitating knee injuries!).

Well, despite an injury-delayed and rusty start, I’m happy to report my concerns were by majority unfounded, with Liv embodying a combination of Baze’s defensive length, 2 Jz’ necessary second unit offensive stubbornness, and CJ’s dual feel for stewardship mixed with scoring. I still get upset with the inconsistencies in his offensive game: dribbling the ball off his foot, setting illegal screens, traveling before starting his post-ups–unforced errors that PG caretakers simply should not make. But then there are the offensive rebounds and put-backs, indefensible by standard-sized PGs; the turn-around jumper that, while not exactly consistent and the antithesis of the Warr’s new ball- and player-movement mantra, does have it’s place on the shot-starved second unit and can keep defenses honest. And of course there’s the D, crouching and long-armed, an intelligent hidden dragon skilled at both sagging back on non-shooters to prevent drives and clog passing lanes, or bodying up to contest jumpers. Plus, his latest signs of aggressiveness and subsequent increased scoring are more than encouraging! Looks like Steve Kerr & Co. knew what they were doing the whole time–simply Livingston, they presumed!

Keys To The Castle: A Warriors Playoff Checklist

 Maintenance

1. Maintain best conference/league record–This one seems as obvious as saying the key to the championship is winning the most games, but it’s slightly more involved than that. Oracle Arena, formerly the Coliseum and better known now as Roaracle, is arguably the league’s biggest home court advantage, and not due to dynamic design (as proposed in Mission Bay), Hollywood theater lighting, or Northwest-style noise-piping, but because of the hardscrabble fan-base, forged in shared agony, who don’t need teleprompting to get on their feet after a slow first quarter start, razz an opposing player’s airball/flop or ref’s blown call, or endorse Steph Curry’s MVP candidacy while at the charity stripe (especially on national TV). The more games you can feed these championship-rabid fans, the better chance of advancing.

2. Maintain health– Another Warriors bugaboo, but how they achieve it is the rub. Spur-adically resting starters and main contributors seems most obvious, and not just the injury-prone stalwarts–Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala–but also the able-bodied Splash Bros–Curry and Klay Thompson–so as to avoid the mental and physical fatigue seen heading into the All-Star break. But along with maintaining health, it’s equally important to preserve sharpness, particularly for Bogut. It’s a fine line to walk between resting enough to avoid injury and exhaustion and yet still retaining touch, fluidity, and continuity, all while sacrificing the least amount of wins possible. Bogut is the key because although he’s the most fragile and therefore needs the most rest, he’s also the half-court offensive facilitator and needs to be in rhythm with the rest of the offensive flow, like the bass in a jazz ensemble–and like many maestros, he can be moody, and it’s up to Kerr and the staff to orchestrate keeping him motivated and focused.

3. Button down offensive order: Players who should be initiating offense–

Always: Curry, Bogut, Klay

Sometimes: Lee, Barbosa, Barnes, Green, Holiday

Never: Speights, Iguodala, Livingston

(Neverevereverever): Rush, Ezeli, Kuzmić

4. Second half/playoff player projections–

The Starters

Bogut: See above.

Curry: Monitor minutes, increase assists per game while decreasing point average–The Warriors function best when Steph is facilitating and involving teammates, who in turn aren’t just watching him and forcing him to do everything himself.

Thompson: Drives lead to jumpers–Klay’s set shot is devastating but can be a touch streaky, especially when he gets stubborn and it’s all the defense has to worry about. About midway through the first half when he was winning multiple player-of-the-week awards and scoring out of his mind, Klay was developing a solid swoop to the hoop where he either beat his man because he was over-aggressively denying the jumper, or putting the breaks on once he hit the key, letting the defender fly by (Goose and Maverick-style!), and putting in a soft one-handed hanger.

Harrison Barnes: Rebound, rebound, rebound–Harrison has untapped potential, but his full game isn’t there yet and shouldn’t be rushed, especially on a title-contender. The Warriors get the most out of him when he is hustling for boards, active on defense, and canning corner 3s–without further development he projects nicely as Bruce Bowen 2.0.

Draymond Green: Soft touch–As coach Steve Kerr says, Green’s the heartbeat of this team, and while his all-out aggression can be frustrating in the form of technicals and repeated mistakes (constantly jumping at pump fakes), it also inspires his teammates to new heights and allows him to play well above his listed size. However, one thing he can improve by tweaking (not sacrificing) his aggression is his shooting touch around the hoop. Jim Barnett harps on this during the broadcasts, but instead of going at the hoop so hard on drives and cuts and trying to finish strong every time, Green’d be best served to use pump fakes and softer/trickier release points around the rim, similar to the way Curry has immensely improved his finishing this year.

The Point/Guards

Iguodala: Less is more–Iggy’s recent three-point success is a bonus and is always welcomed within the flow of the offense, but he makes his best contributions away from the ball–cutting off drivers, closing down passing lanes, and deflecting balls in order to initiate fast-breaks, as well as mentoring and being a team spokesman and leader. Although he’s an offensive Jack-of-all-trades, at this point in his career, he’s a master of none, and I would severely limit his ball-handling and decision-making duties.

Shaun Livingston: Iggy Jr.–The Warriors two ostensible back-up point guards (Livingston and Iguodala) are surprising shaky ball-handlers and decision-makers. Livingston, in particular, needs to stick to his strengths, which are long, knowledgable defense and offensive post-ups, with the occasional drive and pull-up, but generally keep the ball moving on offense with much less dribbling and thinking.

Leandro Barbosa: The Bra-zilian zapper–Unlike his counterparts Liv and Iggy, The Blur is instant offensive off the bench, similar to Vinnie Johnson’s Microwaving ability to score early, often, and unpredictably back in the day. I prefer Barbosa on the drive and quick release while limiting the jumpers and ditching the pretense of PG passing.

Justin Holiday: Curry Light–When discussing Green earlier, I brazenly suggested that all he had to do was finish like Curry–obviously that’s much easier said than done. Similarly, while Holiday has nowhere near the touch, range, drive, or finish of Curry, he can be successful by borrowing from Curry’s bag of tricks–namely, spot-up threes and harassing on-ball defense. If Holiday can consistently do those two things off the end of the bench, he too can be like Steph!

The Bench Bigs

David Lee: Separating the garbage, recycling, and compost–I’ve been waiting for D.Lee to either regain his shooting touch or increase his trade value during extended garbage-time run, but neither has happened and the deadline has passed. Well it’s time to shit or get off the pot–he either needs to salvage his spin moves and release around the rim and fifteen feet extended to make up for his crappy defense, or it’s a lost cause.

Marreese Speights: Catch-and-release and tip monster–Mo-Bucket$ needs to regain his early season scoring prowess by catching and shooting instead of pausing, pumping, or [shudder] driving; staying active on the offensive boards; and moderating his floppy defense.

Festus Ezeli: Expand Ezeli–The Warr need to figure out a way to keep Ezeli healthy and extend his minutes in order to evaluate his post-injury abilities within Kerr’s system and integrate him into the team flow for when the eventual Bogut/Lee injury hits.

Posted by DT on February 24, 2015

History Repeats Itself (Hopefully)

February 19, 2015

Tomorrow night the Warriors will be playing their first game after the All-Star break. Their opponents will be a San Antonio Spurs team that will be on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Warriors will have had a full 8 days of rest (excluding the Splash Bros. & coaching staff) and will be playing one of two teams that have beaten them on their home court this season. If Spurs coach Greg Popovich dares to roll the dice and play his aging big-3, despite his usual routine of resting them on the second game of back to backs, this game could be a preview of a playoff match-up. It certainly holds big implications for the Warriors in terms of a hurdle that they have been attempting to surmount the past few years.

Recently my friend DT compared The Warriors Vs. Spurs matchup to the epic late 80s/early 90s clashes between the Celtics, Pistons and Bulls. It took Chuck Daly, Isaiah Thomas and co. several bouts with a dynastic Boston Squad before they could climb the mountain and arise out of the East. While on their way to winning three Eastern Conference titles and two NBA Championships they served as the foil for Michael Jordan’s ascendant Bulls teams.

While the Warriors didn’t go down to the Spurs in the playoffs last year, there are more than a few parallels here. The Warriors- as the Pistons and Bulls were- are the young team on the rise, anchored by an All-Star back court and front court role players. The Warriors- like the Pistons-are a based around elite defensive play and other-wordly team chemistry. There is no Michael Jordan here, but Steph Curry can certainly draw some Isaiah Thomas comparisons (despite his being 1000 times more likable and fan friendly). Klay Thompson is the remix version of Joe Dumars; an elite two way guard who has the innate ability to score, lock down opposing stars, and at the same time seem completely emotionless while doing so.

The Spurs are certainly akin to those Celtics teams. Several hall of famers, churning out title after title, every year refusing to let father time wear them down.

Chuck Daly joined the Pistons in 1983. He made the playoffs every year he coached the team. It took him 4 years to reach the Eastern finals, 5 to reach the NBA finals, and 6 to win a championship. Those Piston teams began with Isaiah Thomas, Bill Lambier and Vinnie Johnson as core players around which were added key role players and eventual stars like John Sally, Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars.

Phil Jackson, on the other hand took over a fully developed Bulls team complete with a nucleus of Jordan and Scottie Pippen with role players like Craig Hodges, Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright already in place. Phil took the short route to success- achieving the Eastern finals his first year and an NBA title in his second.

If I was to make an analogy here with Warriors coach Steve Kerr, at this point it has to be with Phil Jackson. Whatever the future holds for the Warriors this year and for Kerr’s tenure in the next few years, he has assumed the head coaching position of a fully developed team complete with stars and willing role players. This is much more reminiscent of Jackson’s situation than Daly’s. With today’s rules around the salary cap and free agency, Daly’s six year window may not be realistic for Kerr anyhow.

There are several other ironies, however, that do not match up. Kerr was a teammate of the Spurs’ big-3 and helped them to win a title in 2003. He served under and was mentored by both Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich. Part of the Warriors’ offensive turn-around this year has been Kerr’s implementation of Spurs-like ball movement, with an emphasis on off-ball screens and making the extra pass to create the most efficient shot possible.

As a student of history I want to predict that this will finally be the year that the upstart Warriors will topple the aging Spurs to conquer the West and take a crack at their first title (like the 1988 Pistons or the 1991 Bulls). Unfortunately there are several other factors involved. Despite the Spurs recent dominance, this season the Memphis Grizzlies are probably the Warriors toughest competition. If the playoff seedings stay as they are today the Grizz and Warriors will be the top two seeds, and would seemingly be on a collision course to deciding Western Conference dominance once and for all.

However the chips may fall in May and June, this season has already been a surprise and a success for the Warriors. As other teams scramble at the trade deadline, and the Western Conference mirrors the late 80s Cold War nuclear arms race, the Warriors are standing pat and not making any moves. Content to build on their first half success (42-9!), keep working on the their fundamentals (turnovers!), and continue to utilize a shifting rotation that Kerr has adeptly applied in order to get the absolute most out of each and every role player on the team.

At this point the future looks bright. I like the Warriors chances for a title in the next few years going forward. If history repeats itself- as it often does- the Warriors ascendency to the top of the NBA pile should take place soon enough.

posted by eL Dogg

The Don’t League

The Don’t League, Etc.

 

As All-Star Weekend approaches, I had a grab-bag of NBA observations I wanted to offer:

 

The D(on’t) League

I know the Developmental League is fledgling, especially when compared with the arc and development levels across minor league baseball and the immediacy of the NFL taxi squads, but the current set-up as I understand it just isn’t cutting it. The Warriors’ back-up center Festus Ezeli was sidelined with an ankle sprain from 12/23-2/3, yet his spot on the 12-man roster remained empty almost that entire time. During this duration there were also back-to-backs in which coach Steve Kerr sat big-man Andrew Bogut and super-wing-sub Andre Iguodala, in particular a game versus the Thunder when a half-ending sub-set left guard Justin Holiday (albeit on a switch, but still) defending Steven Adams at the rim and consequently giving up a 3-point play, and yet 7′ Ognjen Kuzmic was not temporarily tapped. Apparently there are 3 additional swing rosters spots outside of the 12 guarantees who can float ad hoc between NBA and DL rosters (which is a good idea in theory, the NBA version of a mini taxi squad–call it an Uber Unit?!), and this may have contributed permutations, but Kuz is on the Warr’s 15 and still wasn’t activated.

The D-League has the added deficit of not being fully developed to represent each team and this seems a huge disadvantage for any team without a representative who has to dip into a remote landscape while other teams can chose from their suburbed surrogate of familiar players they’ve already worked out and who are most likely running scaled-down versions of their own playbooks. And then there’s the problem of all players, even those on a team’s affiliated roster, being poachable by the rest of the Association (excluding the aforementioned 3 swing spots)–what kind of dynamic does this set up, where an unprotected player may get less minutes (and hence less time to “Develop”, the namesake & whole point of the League) in order to shield him from prospective suitors?!

 

In a perfect world, each NBA team would have it’s own corresponding, regional D-League team, with the entire roster protected for a set amount of time, similar to MiLB, while keeping the Swing 3 concept. High-schoolers would also be eligible to forego the farce of 2 semesters of college exploitation or the culture-shock of overseas and enter directly into the D-League or other potential options, weighing their D-League draft position, team, and/or bonus versus whatever scholarship or foreign offer they have on the table, thus potentially creating a D-League draft-day scenario that’s half NBA/NFL talent showcase and half college football letter-of-intent signing announcements. (The DL could even go as far as emulating the soccer and AAU club models, with under-18 and U16 affiliates–with the proviso of required/associated scholastic academies.)

Ok, onto the quick-hit rule changes:

The Big 1*

Reduce season to a 58-game schedule, play each team twice, home and away, and only play twice a week, college basketball conference play-style, with a nod towards the NFL’s immensely successful weekly event viewing schedule, including one-off marque match-ups similar to Sunday and Monday Night Football. This set-up would eliminate the dreaded back-to-backs (which are not part of the game at any other level, specifically the post-season, for good/quality control reasons), create balanced schedules across the board, and ensure the top 16 teams make the playoffs each year. (It would also eliminate conferences and divisions, and while I love the rivalries within baseball divisions and regions and the ability to make the postseason by out-battling your immediate subgroup, the NBA has never had as strong divisional dystopia and doesn’t even reward division winners any playoff seeding advantage, making the transition to a league-wide pool much easier to jump into!)

#2: Analytics

NBA Food Pyramid (Meat- Over Junk-Stats)–Construct an analytic system that susses out when teams play against weak/injured/fatigued competition and adjusts the stats accordingly (e.g., sub-.500 team, missing star player, second game of a back-to-back, garbage time, etc.).

“Blend Score”–Combine all the traditional counting stats with the new analytic stats in descending order of importance, add together and multiply by those importance factors, and get one super-value stat which can be viewed as per game or per minute**.

 

Rule/Scoring Tweaks

Time Outs–In order to keep play moving and decision-making on the court, especially during end-games, eliminate live-ball, bench-initiated, consecutive TOs, or TO-related clock re-sets (meaning no flopping for a looseball and signaling TO before getting tied up, no Chris Weber-ing to avoid a sideline double team, no extra assessments of defensive/offensive sets before key inbounds, and no TOs to avoid 5- and 8-second calls).

Fouls–Offender may never initiate defensive contact and receive a foul (think every James Harden drive ever and the old swing-through and leg-kick techniques); no help-defender can pick up a charge; change moving screens and pass-and-crashes (and possibly offensive fouls in general) to turnovers, not fouls, similar to the force-out rule (fans want evasive offenders and determined defenders, not body-hunters and push-overs); and the offensive team chooses intentional foul shooter at all times, not just within last 2 minutes (defusing the Bash-A-Bogut ploy).

 

Scoring–Start recording the hockey-assist, the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the eventual score, adhering to the current method of counting assists, but extended to all prior passes that qualify (hopefully increasing the cultural cachet of the assist/pass and helping the NBA be more of a joga bonita!).

 

Posted by: DT

(*I know this is highly financially infeasible, but play along!)

(**Assists (x14) – Points Allowed (x13) + Points (x12) – Technicals (X11) – Turn Overs (x10) + Steals (x9) + Rebounds (x8) + Stops (x7) + Blocks (x6) + Denials (x5) + Passes (x4) + Deflections (x3) + Picks (x2) – Missed Shots (X1) = Blend Score per game/min

 

Centers Of Attention

In honor of Tuesday’s Manute Bol Bobble-head Night, I wanted to consider the Warriors’ recent history at the center position. I started watching during the Don Nelson/Run TMC era, and I’ve witnessed a revolving door of Nellie-ball novelty acts and exploitive experimentations (Bol, Chris Weber), stiffs and busts (Alton Lister, Todd Fuller). So I was wondering, who’s been Golden State’s best modern big man, and why, and does the answer provide us with any blueprint for a future fit in the team’s “big” picture?

Let’s lump the most notable recent bigs* into two overly generalized categories: Masquerading Power Forwards and Under-Skilled Stiffs.

Masquerading Power Forwards (Top Ten):

10) Carlos Rogers–Special sub-category of over-hyped, misused forwards; see Anthony Randolph

9) Anthony Tolliver–Are you kidding me?! Excluding Golden State this guy played more SF than C in his career!

8) Andrew DeClercq, 7) Chris Gatling–Represent vintage Nellie era run-and-gun, small-ball, out of position players

6) Clifford Robinson, 5) Jermaine O’Neal–Last-hurrah, headbanded retreads

4) Marreese Speights, 3) Al Harrington–Prototypical stretch fives

2) Rod Higgins–Slightly before my time, but the epitome of the Nellie-ball SF/C

1) Webber–Sent the franchise into a decades-long spiral and still easily tops this list

Under-Skilled Stiffs (Top Ten):

10) Todd Fuller (Tim Young, Patrick O’Bryant)–Character/size over skill draft busts that cost us at minimum Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, and J.J Redick

9) Uwe Blab (Les Jepsen, Jim Petersen, Lister)–You can’t have a stiff list without a Blab–these guys represent the straw-man archetype of Golden State center history

8) Marc Jackson, 7) Victor Alexander–What they produced on O they gave back on D, and then some

6) Bol–Anomaly turned cult-hero; represents the best of Nelson’s creativity

5) Andris Biedrins–Points for longevity, but his ranking this high says more about the Warriors than him

4) Adonal Foyle–Defense and sportsmanship will take you far on this list

3) Erick Dampier–Moody big was the most well-rounded center we’d had in decades, but he was average at best

2) Rony Seikaly–Best offensive skill set on stiff list, which only means he had more than one go-to move

1) Andrew Bogut–Pretty pitiful that our best big by far has, due to injury, absolutely no shooting touch and spends most offensive sets in the post-extended with his back to the basket

C-Webb V. The Agile Aussie: And The Winner Is…

 

Webber and Bogut represent mostly opposing skill sets, with the main similarity being their gift for passing. Offensively, Webber had a remarkable handle and driving ability, along with a solid, medium explosive finish, while Bogut’s feel and confidence around the hoop are suspect. However, Bogut is a human (semi-legal) pick, opening up teammates on and off the ball, while I can’t remember a Webber screen that wasn’t simply a place-holder precipitating his own roll to the hoop. And while Webber was undersized and overmatched on defense, it’s more than that–Bogut sees the defensive end like a chessboard, like the most astute point guards see offensive sets, sizing up not only his man’s talents and tendencies, but all would-be drivers’ likely routes of attack to the basket, providing perfectly timed rim protection, generally retaining possession after blocks, as well as delivering hard, message fouls when necessary; I’m struggling to recall an instance of Webber help-D.

Webber provided one glorious year of excitement, followed by a twelve year curse; Bogut was slow to assimilate and injury prone, but he’s contributed to two consecutive playoff runs and is now the offensive and defensive hub for the best team in the league. Despite health issues and limited traditional offensive assets, Andrew Bogut is clearly the Warriors’ best modern big.

 

Lessons Learned?

So what can we glean from this little drive down memory lane? Well, a majority of these guys were short-term Warriors and/or single-skill players. Continuity and development seem key to the Warriors’ success. Nelson v. Webber and the ensuing trade/retirement sent the organization into a tailspin, and the Monta Ellis/Bogut move had a similar potential, with Steph Curry’s suspect ankles and the fan-base/Joe Lacob divide (plus budding Mark Jackson disquiet) on full public display at Chris Mullin’s jersey retirement. But by extending Curry and Bogut despite their injury histories, and retaining Klay Thompson and David Lee, the Warriors established a cohesion that has allowed them to not only withstand a coaching overhaul, but thrive within a group mentality in a shockingly short amount of time.

Skill Sets 

As far as skills, it’s essential that NBA players possess at least two but preferably three or more skills, the basketball equivalent of five-tool (average, power, base-running, throwing, and fielding) baseball players. Overly simplified: shooting, driving, passing, rebounding, and defending (blocks, steals, denials, etc.). While Bogut can’t shoot or drive, his passing, picks, rebounds, and blocks make him a multi-tool threat, the perfect compliment for an offensively prolific team. That’s why it’s imperative for Festus Ezeli to develop that jump-hook/etc. to go along with his D and boards, to separate him from the Foyles and Biedrins of the past.

We Must Protect This House! (Riding The Wave) 

Another key to the bigs’ development has been protecting them and putting them in positions to succeed. Requiring Webber at 6’9″ to play center was one thing, but surrounding him with an offensive-minded SF turned PF in Billy Owens and backing him up with similarly undersized, offense-first bigs like Alexander and Gatling was a recipe for disaster. Conversely, Draymond Green is a smaller four, but grounding him with a defensive anchor like Bogut and a developing buoy like Ezeli, as well as two-way cruisers Thompson and Harrison Barnes as well as a speedboat like Curry allows their skills to rise to the surface and for them to fluidly function and flourish as a unit. Likewise, Thompson, Barnes, and Green (along with subs Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and Justin Holiday) provide interchangeable switch-ability on D that protect Curry’s newfound defensive cavalierness and Bogut’s tricky foul issues. Green’s studied defensive sagging counteracts Curry’s occasional head-turns and lack of adherence to ball-you-man mantra, while Thompson’s, Iguodala’s, and Livingston’s wingspans block all passing lanes, along with Bogut’s savant-like guile and timely rim-protection.

The point here is defensive fluidity, and it flows from the man in the middle. Bogut’s presence, reputation, and intelligence allow Curry-a heretofore defensive liability-to take advantage of his defensive assets (speed and quickness) by dogging his man with the foreknowledge that Bogut literally has his back. It also allows Green to go chest-to-chest with the opponent’s most skilled big, knowing Bogut-help is lurking; and it encourages those fungible pterodactyls (Thompson, Barnes, Livingston, etc.) to gamble and trap imperviously. Offensively, the sets also circulate through Bogut–despite his lack of range or drive, he untraditionally sets up just inside the perimeter, establishing sail-size drag screens on and off the ball. Or he encamps with the rock, methodically insisting the play run it’s course, be it a rim-flash, backdoor cut, illicit with-ball pick-and-pass, or a staggered dribble followed by a touch-less hook.

As always with Bogut- the pachyderm in the post- the central issue is health. This season’s discovery of a degenerative knee issue has changed his injury status from the freakish (elbow, rib, etc.) to the persistent, meaning his days of effectiveness are numbered. But even if the Warriors don’t re-sign him the year after next, they finally have a formula for “big” success–multi-skilled steeds that compliment each other within a team and organizational concept.

Posted by:DT
January 29, 2015

*For the purposes of this post, my sample-size was limited to Golden State players listed as centers from the ’89/’90 season-the present, as per http://www.basketball-reference.com/

Klay Thompson’s Video Game 3rd Quarter

…or “An Emotional Journey Through the NBA’s record for points in a quarter.”

The 3rd quarter started on depressing note. The Warriors came out of the locker room with a middling 5 point lead over a sub-par Sacramento Kings squad. Darren Collison started things off by hitting a 3 pointer and dishing an assist to Derrick Williams. Draymond and Bogut tossed up a couple of bricks before Boogie Cousins hit a baseline floater to put the Kings up by two points.

One minute in this 3rd quarter didn’t fit this season’s narrative. The Warriors have been absolutely murdering sub .500 teams- and the 3rd quarter is usually when they give the knockout blow. As I slowly sipped my Big Daddy IPA, I was anticipating an explosion, but nothing could prepare me for what happened next.

I’ve never seen anything like it in real life. It reminded me of when I visited my friend’s house who owned the NBA Jam video game that I’d never played. Before I knew what hit me I was down 100 points in the second quarter, trying to figure out what the “X-button” did, why his shots kept going in every single time, or what “He’s on Fire!” meant. Tonight Klay turned that video game into reality.

Steph stemmed the tide of Sacramento’s onslaught with a drive to the lane- a foul and two free throws. The two teams then went back and forth a few times and the score remained tied, until 9:44 to go, when Klay began his path to making history.

• 9:44 (2 points.)- The Warriors are in their half court and haven’t hit a field goal up to this point. Klay takes the bull by the horns and initiates a drive in on his man- Ben McLemore (ohh poor Ben, this is where the abuse starts). Klay pulls up right inside the free throw line as Ben flies past, bumping into Cousins. Klay puts in an easy uncontested close range jumper. “He’s Heating Up” 
• 8:21 (5)- Klay steals a pass to his man in the corner, leads the fast break, runs right up to the top of the three point line, stops, Tip-Toes up to the line, jumps straight up and sinks a three. No celebration. No reaction. Business. Just Business, sir.
• 7:14 (8)- Off a Williams miss from the corner, Steph grabs the rebound and initiates the break. As he has done a thousand times before, Steph strangles the entire right side of the floor with the threat of his pull-up, while his partner in crime takes the left wing. Steph finds Klay for a pull up three. SPLASH! A hint of a minor reaction can be seen on Klay’s face after the shot. A feint glimmer of a smile. Nothing more than a hint. This is what we do. We ball hard. We smoke teams. We’re the splash brothers. Klay saunters over to the bench all business. Takes a few high fives in stride and sits calmly, quietly. As small puffs of smoke are observed to rise off of his shoulders from the stands. “He’s Getting Hot!”
• 6:04(10). Curry has now missed 3 shots in the quarter and turned the ball over twice. The score is 66-64, but despite having the lead the Warriors look out of whack offensively. All except Klay that is. Bogut makes a block, Barnes outlets to Klay who forwards ahead to Curry in the open floor with Klay speeding down the right lane, and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another failed alley-oop attempt? The Warriors Lob-City usually ends in a pass about 3 feet too high sailing out of bounds, but not this one. Not in this quarter. Curry takes a little off the pass this time and it’s perfect, Klay only needs one hand to flush it down. “HE’S ON FIRE!!!!!!” The Splash brothers jog back on D, nonchalantly, as the entire crowd at Oracle Arena stands up.

• 5:32 (13) The lead is still only 2, but it might as well be 100. Sacramento is fiddling with their controller trying to find what the X-button does, as Klay calmly dribbles twice around the perimeter before stepping back for a 3 over Stauskus. At this point, Curry isn’t even looking for his own shot- or anybody else’s for that matter. Klay is the offense. And there is nothing anyone on the Kings can do about it. Klay runs back. Still no smile. No high fives. All business. Stone. Cold. Assassin.
• 4:57 (16) Klay has the ball three feet behind the 3 point line. Draymond is at the line. Klay points down as if to signal for Dray to set the screen, everyone waits for Dray- then Klay jumps straight up and fires off a 26 footer, and Stauskus and Oracle, and Dray and Klay and everyone else watching the game has no doubt. The crowd is on their feet. The animated Warriors bench mob of Barbosa, Speights and Livinstone are out on the court- falling all over themselves. Oracle’s foundations are beginning to shake. The referee literally stops play. It’s almost as if Klay’s last shot has lit the nets on fire and they have to wait to put them out. Sacramento is on the ropes. Klay allows himself to slap five with a teammate. Still no smile. No emotion. Gotta keep it together Klay. I can’t let them see me react. I have to keep it cool man. Ice Cold baby. Ice Cold.
• 4:19 (19) Catch and shoot 3 off a curl. Stauskus is baffled. The fans are standing after every shot. Let the video games begin.
• Klay posts up Ray McCallum on the elbow. He finds Draymond for a wide open layup. Even when he’s this hot he still finds the open man, makes the right play, stays within himself. Ice Cold Baby. Ice Cold. After the play a timeout is called and Klay shows his first emotion of the quarter leaping to celebrate with the bench mob. Cracks in the glacier. Klay’s emotions about to burst forth.
• 3:03 (22)Curry finds Klay on the right wing coming off a curl from a D. Lee down screen. Klay doesn’t have that much space and the shot hits the front of the rim. Then it bounces ever so gently off the glass and down into the cylinder. Klay affords us a genuine smile as he runs back down the court. The moment is getting to him. He can’t help it.
• 2:30 (24) Klay runs out on a break and drives the lane- pulling 4 of the 5 Sacramento defenders to him. It’s all good, let me bust a Klay-up real quick. You fools really thought I was nothing but a jump-shooter huh?!?

• 

  Swagg on a hundred trillion

  2:06 (27) Steph comes up with a steel and it’s another break. Only this time there isn’t really much thought. All 10 players on the court and all 19,596 fans know where this is going. Steph to Klay on the right wing for three. All Net. All Roaracle. All Klay. All-Star. And Klay’s got his tounge out. And his swag is on a hundred trillion. And all those thoughts about keeping it cool are OUT THE WINDOW BAYBAY-BAYBAY!!! And did I mention the entire arena is on their feet? And the lead is now 17. And there is no looking back.

• 1:37 (29) Forget Steph! D.Lee outlets the rebound straight to Klay. Forget a screen! Klay waives off Draymond past the arc. Forget a defender! Klay dribbles into the key and pulls up over the entire Kings Franchise. Swish! Try and stop me now! I’M ON FIRE!!!!  Klay highfives Lee and is as juiced up as he’s ever been in his NBA career. Pumping his fist and yelling. Real. Raw. Emotions. All it took was 29 points on 11 shots to get there. And we’re not done yet.
• 1:06 (32) Lee to Steph. On the break he thinks about it. Fakes at the 3-point line, then reconsiders. The context, the situation, it would only be right. This is a team that is all about letting the next man shine. And he does, and when Klay hits the off balance flat footed 3 from the corner, it’s all Stauskus can do but put his hands up, totally perplexed. He can’t find the X-button on his controller, and Klay happens to own the game.
• Klay is shaking his head in disbelief. He’s pounding his chest. He’s doing the Ric Flair “WOOOO!”. He’s making a B-line for the bench mob. He’s getting slapped on the ass by Bogut. The entire arena is worshipping at the Church of Splash tonight.  He’s taking a breather. Emotionally and physically drained. But it can’t stop now. We need to beat this game.
  WE HAVE THE CHEAT CODE!

• 0:35 (35) D.Lee and Draymond create a modified version of the picket fence screen play at the free throw line and open Klay up for an easy catch and shoot 3. The whole team is in on it now. They’re riding this wave as long as it’ll take them. There’s no come down from a high this sweet.
• Ramon Sessions loses the ball on the ensuing possession and Klay dribbles the length of the floor as Justin Holiday sneaks into the lane,  and then… WHAT? are they really trying this? Another alley-oop? No. Another failed Alley-oop attempt. The ball sails past Holiday, and is turned over. It’s OK, Klay. You’ll work on that in the off season.
• 0:04 (37) As he crosses half-court, he’s fouled lightly and his NBA record setting 36th and 37th points come at the free throw line. A mellow end to the quarter. The charred remains of the net are replaced during the TV timeout.

Klay takes his seat on the bench and his place in the record books. An emotional roller coaster. He looks exhausted, elated and genuinely happy. The fire has melted the ice. Klay smiles and gives his teammates daps. Early tomorrow he’ll be back the gym, taking thousands upon thousands of jump shots. Like he does every day. All business. All the time. That’s Klay.

Posted by eL Dogg. Friday January 23, 2015

The Best Trade the Warriors Can Make…

January 19, 2015

Over the past two months, the Western Conference has seen major personal movement among the top contenders. Dallas acquired Rajon Rondo, the Rockets added both Corey Brewer and Josh Smith and more recently the Grizzlies got Jeff Green. Reportedly the Thunder are hot on the heels of Brook Lopez, and more likely than not there will be a few more major pieces moving around before the February 19th trade deadline. Impact players like Wilson Chandler, Aaron Afflalo, Deron Williams, Lance Stephenson and Jose Calderon are being actively shopped around by teams who have already packed in any hope of reaching the post season and would prefer to move up in the draft and dump salary.

What should the Warriors do? Should we take this opportunity to dump salary so that we can re-sign our young front court duo of Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green next offseason (see previous post). Should we add another big, to sure up a defensive presence during Bogut and Ezeli’s inevitable stretch of missed games? Are we being left behind while other teams are adding pieces to solidify themselves for playoff basketball? In order to answer these questions and contemplate the Warriors best option is moving forward, I’d like to quickly analyze the impact of the other big moves that teams have made so far.

Dallas Mavericks: On December 18th when the Mavericks sent Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson and two draft picks to the Celtics in a trade that netted them Rajon Rondo & Dwight Powell. On the surface this looked like a huge splash of a trade. Most casual fans of the NBA remember Rondo for his dominant post season performances against the Lakers in the Finals and the Heat in the Celtics’ last series of playoff relevance. What they fail to recognize, however, is that the Rondo of our memories is gone. Rondo is now in his 9th season. The last full season he played was the strike shortened 2011-2012 campaign. Since then he’s missed large portions of two seasons, and seen his production fall off in most major categories. While he is still only 28, he will be a free agent and most likely expect close to a max deal. He’s basically a high priced rental that Mark Cuban hopes he can convince to resettle in the Lone Star state. When the trade was made the Mavs were 14-6 and had the highest rated offense in the NBA. While they are still highest in offensive efficiency as of today, they are 14-7 after the trade. They are currently tied for the 4th seed with the Rockets.

This trade was supposed to make a huge splash, but I don’t feel any water The Mavericks are still only a middle of the pack defensive team ranking 16 of 30 in defensive efficiency. The memories of Rondo outplay the reality. Of the 8 teams who currently qualify for playoff spots in the West 5 have point guards who are superior to Rondo (Curry, Lillard, Connely, Parker, Paul). While Rondo is a huge improvement on Jameer Nelson, he hasn’t made their offense any better than when Nelson was at the helm. Things have worked out better than expected between Rondo and Monta Ellis in terms of offensive chemistry, but what about what the Mavs gave up? Jae Crowder is a solid wing defender and Brandan Wright is an athletic big-man who was leading the NBA in field goal percentage. Neither were essential pieces, but both fit nicely into Carlisle’s system. Clearly Wright knew his role well enough to rarely take a shot he couldn’t make. It took the coaching staff and players real effort to integrate Rondo’s ball dominant and poor shooting court into their already fluid offensive scheme. I’m not sure this trade made Dallas measurably better, and it may end up costing them in the long run.

Houston Rockets: The thinking behind adding Corey Brewer is obvious. Brewer’s skill set is a perfect match for McHale’s current system. He hustles, pushes the ball, plays relentless defense, and spaces the floor very well, as he is an excellent spot up 3 point shooter-especially from the corner. Josh Smith, however, is a mystery. He can’t space the floor. He pushes the ball but at a much slower and clumsy pace than any of the Rocket’s backcourt players. His defense used to be elite. But that was two teams ago. Josh Smith is literally the worst 3 point shooter in NBA history. The Pistons immediately underwent an entire franchise turn-around since he was released. Since he landed in Houston the Rockets are 9-6, compared with 20-7 before he arrived. Some of this is accounted for with strength of schedule, but again I’m not seeing how Josh Smith has had a positive impact on this team. He began by starting the first 4 games and has since found a role as a bench player, averaging 23 minutes a game, with 10.6 points on 43% shooting (including 21% from 3). While he is contributing on defense with 0.9 blocks and 5.3 rebounds, he’s also turning the ball over 2.7 times a game.

As with Rondo, I think about what the Rockets game up to add Smith. While Josh came to the Rockets after being released from the Pistons, the Rockets still had to release back-up Center Tarik Black to make room for Smith. Black is clearly not as productive a player- but he is also a lot less redundant than Smith given the rest of the Rockets roster. If the past 4 seasons are any indication, Dwight Howard will miss quite a few mid-season games due to various maladies. During these stretches in the early Spring, Black’s physical presence in the post will be missed more than GM Darryl Morrey anticipated in December when he got greedy and added Smith to a roster that had no place for him.

Josh Smith doesn’t make the Rockets a better team and he doesn’t fit into their over-all scheme on offense. Ultimately this move will end up hurting the team as a less efficient player is now taking away minutes from players who were increasing their efficiency as the year progressed. The Rockets cohesion has also suffered.

Memphis Grizzlies: A week ago, the Grizzlies traded away Quincy Pondexter,  Tayshaun Prince’s ghost, and a few draft picks in a three team deal that brought them Jeff Green. This trade is very fresh thus and more difficult to evaluate. At first glance it seems like a massive upgrade to go from Prince’s ghost to the actual physical presence on the wing of Green. This move was made with the theory that the Grizzlies were one wing scorer away from making a Championship run. They thought that Courtney Lee would be that guy this year, but he hasn’t turned out to solve all of their problems yet. Memphis ranks 9th in Offensive efficiency and 11th on defense. With their style of play they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs and will no doubt contend for the Western Conference title. Is Jeff Green the answer? Not unless you can find a way to combine his offensive skills with Tony Allen’s defense into one body. I do think this was a savvy move, however, as the Grizzlies identified a specific area of weakness and improved their team without much long term sacrifice.

And now to the Warriors. The difference between each team above and the Dubs is that there really isn’t any identifiable need that the Warriors are looking to fill. Today they played 13 guys against the Nuggets in a game they won by 43 points. All 13 players scored. The Warriors don’t need to acquire any players, because Kerr is barely able to find enough time to play all of the players that he currently has. Ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and #3 on offense, the Warriors haven’t shown a single real weakness (besides health) all season. Not to say they won’t- but at this point they haven’t.

This brings up another point. Making major moves decreases team cohesion. The Warriors core roster has been together for three years now and they made no major moves during this past off season. Of the 5 Warrior starters, the 4 young guys are all having career years. This is from playing together, and playing in a cohesive system. Instead of having to re-learn major schemes, the Warriors can now spend their practice time improving their fundamentals. For Klay Thompson than means he can work on his moves to the hoop. For Steph Curry, that means he can work on his on-ball defense and fighting through screens. Both of these players have taken major strides in these areas over the past twelve months. Even though they have the best record in the NBA, I believe that we haven’t seen this team’s best basketball yet.

So for now the answer is obvious, the best trade the Warriors can make is no trade at all.

Posted by eL Dogg

Don’t Panic!

Scarce resources are always valuable. A basic rule of economics is that the more scarce the resource the more valuable it is. At this point in the season, with a record of 31 wins in 37 games, a loss for the Dubs is a valuable commodity among the rest of the league.

Losses can also be valuable for the coaching staff. As the season progresses, blowout wins against Eastern Conference fodder like the Heat, LeBron-Less Cavs, and Pacers don’t provide much insight into how this team can improve and take their game to the next level. Losing a road game, the 3rd in 4 days, with Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala both on the bench isn’t anything to get worried about. If anything, the loss provides some valuable take-aways moving forward. Hopefully the coaching staff can work with the players to take away some lessons from tonight’s game. After watching the game tonight I had a few take aways as well.

• Steve Kerr clearly sees the big picture.
  This is the first game that Kerr has gone full Popovich on us and rested two major contributors without injuries. This bodes well for the Warriors long term goal of going deep into the playoffs. It seems like the coaching staff are reflecting the prevailing the philosophy shared by the majority of fans that I interact with; in order to seriously contend for the title we need to limit Bogut’s minutes and games played as much as possible now- in order to maximize him in April, May and hopefully June.
• Iguodala’s presence on the floor cannot be measured with traditional stats.
  Without Iggy down the stretch in the 4th quarter of this game, the Warriors simply couldn’t get stops. There was no one to harass Durant, clog passing lanes, cause deflections and generally disrupt the offense. Iguodala’s leadership both bolsters the second unit and the crunchtime lineup. While Andrew is the rim protector, Andre is the perimeter protector- stopping the drive and kicks and pick and rolls before the develop.
• The Thunder are not the team we beat in Oakland ten days ago.
  Despite what Scott Brooks claimed after the game, his team was slumping when they suffered a 25 point defeat at the hands of the Dubs. Their shooting was horrendous, their offense stagnant and their defense lazy. Much of that was due to the Warriors high level of play- but not all of it. Two nights later they repeated a nearly identical performance in Sacramento- losing by 21 to a lackluster Kings team. Tonight showed that OKC is a threat at home, that Serge Ibaka can be a factor when engaged on offense (and when Russell decides to share the ball) and that the Warriors certainly can’t take this team for granted.
• OKC has no answer for Klay Thompson.
  It isn’t Andre Roberson, and it most definitely isn’t Dion Waiters. In the 3rd quarter Klay got what ever he wanted in the paint. He mixed in jump shots with dunks, and drive-and-stop pump fakes for easy looks in the lane. As fans we’re seeing a new Klay this year and his relentlessly attacking the rim during the 3rd quarter tonight was a great example of how far he’s come. (For more on Klay’s “6 new lethal moves” check out this great article by Ethan Sherwood Strauss)
• The Warriors will aiight.
  Without Bogut. Without Iggy. On the road. Against the Thunder. The Warriors still scrapped and clawed their way to within 4 points with 9 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Down the stretch they traded baskets but simply couldn’t come up with a stop. They trailed throughout much of the game, rebounded poorly and played their worst defense of the season- with OKC shooting 52%. In the grand scheme of things though, the Warriors rested two of their veterans, are 8-2 in their last 10 and are still sitting on top of the Western Conference (2.5 games up on the Trail Blazers). Meanwhile OKC is chasing the 8 seed at 3.5 games back of Phoenix and is only now really getting it together to make their run. These two teams may very well meet again in first round of the playoffs. This would make for both a competitive and highly entertaining series. With the presence of Bogut and Iguodala, however, I don’t think OKC would stand a chance. #FullSquadposted by eL Dogg on January 16, 2015

Un-Like-Lee

With the emergence of Draymond Green this season we must revisit the David Lee conundrum. I like Lee, in the same way I liked Troy Murphy, Antawn Jamison, and Joe Smith before him, as effective, nice-guy scorers on ineffective, mediocre teams. But the current Warriors are far superior to those clubs, and likability in sports can be a detriment. Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson bring a chippiness, stubbornness, and pouty arrogance, respectively, that would annoy me in a pickup game, but which serve there purpose for an aspiring champion. Lee’s been our token All-Star and he’s besties with Steph Curry, but he’s also grown accustom to bad teams and stat-stuffing. So what is his current role and value, and what are the Warriors options for him?

Lee’s league-wide value is trending down–he’s been injury prone, his stats are declining, and his shooting touch and knack for rebounds have left him. Trading him now–while clearing cap space that could be paired with other moves to make an offseason run at a Marc Gasol and/or resigning Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes–will not net equal return value. Despite the excitement and novelty of all this year’s in-season transactions, basketball is much more of a team game than a sport like baseball, where midseason moves are more common and effective, largely due to the individualized match-ups and specialization that are inherent to that game. Basketball teams take much longer to gel and even the shrewdest trades (Monta Ellis for Bogut; Speedy Claxton for Baron Davis) can take years to fully develop and rarely equal same season success.

With all this in mind, I’m against moving Lee, not because he’s a fan-favorite or for loyalty’s sake, but due to his depleted value and the ineffectiveness of in-season NBA trades. Best case scenario: continue bringing him off the bench as hopefully the instant-offense compliment to defensive sub stalwarts Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and Festus Ezeli; get him touches and shots early and often (see the recent Indiana Pacers game) to get his feel and confidence going; and finally, play him big minutes against inferior teams or match-ups in order to inflate his stats and value for the chances of an offseason trade. This might not seem like the kindest treatment of a franchise fixture, but the road to a championship isn’t about making friends, and in sports, we all know where nice guys finish.

posted by: DT

January 12, 2015