History Repeats Itself (Hopefully)

February 19, 2015

Tomorrow night the Warriors will be playing their first game after the All-Star break. Their opponents will be a San Antonio Spurs team that will be on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Warriors will have had a full 8 days of rest (excluding the Splash Bros. & coaching staff) and will be playing one of two teams that have beaten them on their home court this season. If Spurs coach Greg Popovich dares to roll the dice and play his aging big-3, despite his usual routine of resting them on the second game of back to backs, this game could be a preview of a playoff match-up. It certainly holds big implications for the Warriors in terms of a hurdle that they have been attempting to surmount the past few years.

Recently my friend DT compared The Warriors Vs. Spurs matchup to the epic late 80s/early 90s clashes between the Celtics, Pistons and Bulls. It took Chuck Daly, Isaiah Thomas and co. several bouts with a dynastic Boston Squad before they could climb the mountain and arise out of the East. While on their way to winning three Eastern Conference titles and two NBA Championships they served as the foil for Michael Jordan’s ascendant Bulls teams.

While the Warriors didn’t go down to the Spurs in the playoffs last year, there are more than a few parallels here. The Warriors- as the Pistons and Bulls were- are the young team on the rise, anchored by an All-Star back court and front court role players. The Warriors- like the Pistons-are a based around elite defensive play and other-wordly team chemistry. There is no Michael Jordan here, but Steph Curry can certainly draw some Isaiah Thomas comparisons (despite his being 1000 times more likable and fan friendly). Klay Thompson is the remix version of Joe Dumars; an elite two way guard who has the innate ability to score, lock down opposing stars, and at the same time seem completely emotionless while doing so.

The Spurs are certainly akin to those Celtics teams. Several hall of famers, churning out title after title, every year refusing to let father time wear them down.

Chuck Daly joined the Pistons in 1983. He made the playoffs every year he coached the team. It took him 4 years to reach the Eastern finals, 5 to reach the NBA finals, and 6 to win a championship. Those Piston teams began with Isaiah Thomas, Bill Lambier and Vinnie Johnson as core players around which were added key role players and eventual stars like John Sally, Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars.

Phil Jackson, on the other hand took over a fully developed Bulls team complete with a nucleus of Jordan and Scottie Pippen with role players like Craig Hodges, Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright already in place. Phil took the short route to success- achieving the Eastern finals his first year and an NBA title in his second.

If I was to make an analogy here with Warriors coach Steve Kerr, at this point it has to be with Phil Jackson. Whatever the future holds for the Warriors this year and for Kerr’s tenure in the next few years, he has assumed the head coaching position of a fully developed team complete with stars and willing role players. This is much more reminiscent of Jackson’s situation than Daly’s. With today’s rules around the salary cap and free agency, Daly’s six year window may not be realistic for Kerr anyhow.

There are several other ironies, however, that do not match up. Kerr was a teammate of the Spurs’ big-3 and helped them to win a title in 2003. He served under and was mentored by both Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich. Part of the Warriors’ offensive turn-around this year has been Kerr’s implementation of Spurs-like ball movement, with an emphasis on off-ball screens and making the extra pass to create the most efficient shot possible.

As a student of history I want to predict that this will finally be the year that the upstart Warriors will topple the aging Spurs to conquer the West and take a crack at their first title (like the 1988 Pistons or the 1991 Bulls). Unfortunately there are several other factors involved. Despite the Spurs recent dominance, this season the Memphis Grizzlies are probably the Warriors toughest competition. If the playoff seedings stay as they are today the Grizz and Warriors will be the top two seeds, and would seemingly be on a collision course to deciding Western Conference dominance once and for all.

However the chips may fall in May and June, this season has already been a surprise and a success for the Warriors. As other teams scramble at the trade deadline, and the Western Conference mirrors the late 80s Cold War nuclear arms race, the Warriors are standing pat and not making any moves. Content to build on their first half success (42-9!), keep working on the their fundamentals (turnovers!), and continue to utilize a shifting rotation that Kerr has adeptly applied in order to get the absolute most out of each and every role player on the team.

At this point the future looks bright. I like the Warriors chances for a title in the next few years going forward. If history repeats itself- as it often does- the Warriors ascendency to the top of the NBA pile should take place soon enough.

posted by eL Dogg