Keys To The Castle: A Warriors Playoff Checklist

 Maintenance

1. Maintain best conference/league record–This one seems as obvious as saying the key to the championship is winning the most games, but it’s slightly more involved than that. Oracle Arena, formerly the Coliseum and better known now as Roaracle, is arguably the league’s biggest home court advantage, and not due to dynamic design (as proposed in Mission Bay), Hollywood theater lighting, or Northwest-style noise-piping, but because of the hardscrabble fan-base, forged in shared agony, who don’t need teleprompting to get on their feet after a slow first quarter start, razz an opposing player’s airball/flop or ref’s blown call, or endorse Steph Curry’s MVP candidacy while at the charity stripe (especially on national TV). The more games you can feed these championship-rabid fans, the better chance of advancing.

2. Maintain health– Another Warriors bugaboo, but how they achieve it is the rub. Spur-adically resting starters and main contributors seems most obvious, and not just the injury-prone stalwarts–Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala–but also the able-bodied Splash Bros–Curry and Klay Thompson–so as to avoid the mental and physical fatigue seen heading into the All-Star break. But along with maintaining health, it’s equally important to preserve sharpness, particularly for Bogut. It’s a fine line to walk between resting enough to avoid injury and exhaustion and yet still retaining touch, fluidity, and continuity, all while sacrificing the least amount of wins possible. Bogut is the key because although he’s the most fragile and therefore needs the most rest, he’s also the half-court offensive facilitator and needs to be in rhythm with the rest of the offensive flow, like the bass in a jazz ensemble–and like many maestros, he can be moody, and it’s up to Kerr and the staff to orchestrate keeping him motivated and focused.

3. Button down offensive order: Players who should be initiating offense–

Always: Curry, Bogut, Klay

Sometimes: Lee, Barbosa, Barnes, Green, Holiday

Never: Speights, Iguodala, Livingston

(Neverevereverever): Rush, Ezeli, Kuzmić

4. Second half/playoff player projections–

The Starters

Bogut: See above.

Curry: Monitor minutes, increase assists per game while decreasing point average–The Warriors function best when Steph is facilitating and involving teammates, who in turn aren’t just watching him and forcing him to do everything himself.

Thompson: Drives lead to jumpers–Klay’s set shot is devastating but can be a touch streaky, especially when he gets stubborn and it’s all the defense has to worry about. About midway through the first half when he was winning multiple player-of-the-week awards and scoring out of his mind, Klay was developing a solid swoop to the hoop where he either beat his man because he was over-aggressively denying the jumper, or putting the breaks on once he hit the key, letting the defender fly by (Goose and Maverick-style!), and putting in a soft one-handed hanger.

Harrison Barnes: Rebound, rebound, rebound–Harrison has untapped potential, but his full game isn’t there yet and shouldn’t be rushed, especially on a title-contender. The Warriors get the most out of him when he is hustling for boards, active on defense, and canning corner 3s–without further development he projects nicely as Bruce Bowen 2.0.

Draymond Green: Soft touch–As coach Steve Kerr says, Green’s the heartbeat of this team, and while his all-out aggression can be frustrating in the form of technicals and repeated mistakes (constantly jumping at pump fakes), it also inspires his teammates to new heights and allows him to play well above his listed size. However, one thing he can improve by tweaking (not sacrificing) his aggression is his shooting touch around the hoop. Jim Barnett harps on this during the broadcasts, but instead of going at the hoop so hard on drives and cuts and trying to finish strong every time, Green’d be best served to use pump fakes and softer/trickier release points around the rim, similar to the way Curry has immensely improved his finishing this year.

The Point/Guards

Iguodala: Less is more–Iggy’s recent three-point success is a bonus and is always welcomed within the flow of the offense, but he makes his best contributions away from the ball–cutting off drivers, closing down passing lanes, and deflecting balls in order to initiate fast-breaks, as well as mentoring and being a team spokesman and leader. Although he’s an offensive Jack-of-all-trades, at this point in his career, he’s a master of none, and I would severely limit his ball-handling and decision-making duties.

Shaun Livingston: Iggy Jr.–The Warriors two ostensible back-up point guards (Livingston and Iguodala) are surprising shaky ball-handlers and decision-makers. Livingston, in particular, needs to stick to his strengths, which are long, knowledgable defense and offensive post-ups, with the occasional drive and pull-up, but generally keep the ball moving on offense with much less dribbling and thinking.

Leandro Barbosa: The Bra-zilian zapper–Unlike his counterparts Liv and Iggy, The Blur is instant offensive off the bench, similar to Vinnie Johnson’s Microwaving ability to score early, often, and unpredictably back in the day. I prefer Barbosa on the drive and quick release while limiting the jumpers and ditching the pretense of PG passing.

Justin Holiday: Curry Light–When discussing Green earlier, I brazenly suggested that all he had to do was finish like Curry–obviously that’s much easier said than done. Similarly, while Holiday has nowhere near the touch, range, drive, or finish of Curry, he can be successful by borrowing from Curry’s bag of tricks–namely, spot-up threes and harassing on-ball defense. If Holiday can consistently do those two things off the end of the bench, he too can be like Steph!

The Bench Bigs

David Lee: Separating the garbage, recycling, and compost–I’ve been waiting for D.Lee to either regain his shooting touch or increase his trade value during extended garbage-time run, but neither has happened and the deadline has passed. Well it’s time to shit or get off the pot–he either needs to salvage his spin moves and release around the rim and fifteen feet extended to make up for his crappy defense, or it’s a lost cause.

Marreese Speights: Catch-and-release and tip monster–Mo-Bucket$ needs to regain his early season scoring prowess by catching and shooting instead of pausing, pumping, or [shudder] driving; staying active on the offensive boards; and moderating his floppy defense.

Festus Ezeli: Expand Ezeli–The Warr need to figure out a way to keep Ezeli healthy and extend his minutes in order to evaluate his post-injury abilities within Kerr’s system and integrate him into the team flow for when the eventual Bogut/Lee injury hits.

Posted by DT on February 24, 2015

History Repeats Itself (Hopefully)

February 19, 2015

Tomorrow night the Warriors will be playing their first game after the All-Star break. Their opponents will be a San Antonio Spurs team that will be on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Warriors will have had a full 8 days of rest (excluding the Splash Bros. & coaching staff) and will be playing one of two teams that have beaten them on their home court this season. If Spurs coach Greg Popovich dares to roll the dice and play his aging big-3, despite his usual routine of resting them on the second game of back to backs, this game could be a preview of a playoff match-up. It certainly holds big implications for the Warriors in terms of a hurdle that they have been attempting to surmount the past few years.

Recently my friend DT compared The Warriors Vs. Spurs matchup to the epic late 80s/early 90s clashes between the Celtics, Pistons and Bulls. It took Chuck Daly, Isaiah Thomas and co. several bouts with a dynastic Boston Squad before they could climb the mountain and arise out of the East. While on their way to winning three Eastern Conference titles and two NBA Championships they served as the foil for Michael Jordan’s ascendant Bulls teams.

While the Warriors didn’t go down to the Spurs in the playoffs last year, there are more than a few parallels here. The Warriors- as the Pistons and Bulls were- are the young team on the rise, anchored by an All-Star back court and front court role players. The Warriors- like the Pistons-are a based around elite defensive play and other-wordly team chemistry. There is no Michael Jordan here, but Steph Curry can certainly draw some Isaiah Thomas comparisons (despite his being 1000 times more likable and fan friendly). Klay Thompson is the remix version of Joe Dumars; an elite two way guard who has the innate ability to score, lock down opposing stars, and at the same time seem completely emotionless while doing so.

The Spurs are certainly akin to those Celtics teams. Several hall of famers, churning out title after title, every year refusing to let father time wear them down.

Chuck Daly joined the Pistons in 1983. He made the playoffs every year he coached the team. It took him 4 years to reach the Eastern finals, 5 to reach the NBA finals, and 6 to win a championship. Those Piston teams began with Isaiah Thomas, Bill Lambier and Vinnie Johnson as core players around which were added key role players and eventual stars like John Sally, Dennis Rodman and Joe Dumars.

Phil Jackson, on the other hand took over a fully developed Bulls team complete with a nucleus of Jordan and Scottie Pippen with role players like Craig Hodges, Horace Grant and Bill Cartwright already in place. Phil took the short route to success- achieving the Eastern finals his first year and an NBA title in his second.

If I was to make an analogy here with Warriors coach Steve Kerr, at this point it has to be with Phil Jackson. Whatever the future holds for the Warriors this year and for Kerr’s tenure in the next few years, he has assumed the head coaching position of a fully developed team complete with stars and willing role players. This is much more reminiscent of Jackson’s situation than Daly’s. With today’s rules around the salary cap and free agency, Daly’s six year window may not be realistic for Kerr anyhow.

There are several other ironies, however, that do not match up. Kerr was a teammate of the Spurs’ big-3 and helped them to win a title in 2003. He served under and was mentored by both Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich. Part of the Warriors’ offensive turn-around this year has been Kerr’s implementation of Spurs-like ball movement, with an emphasis on off-ball screens and making the extra pass to create the most efficient shot possible.

As a student of history I want to predict that this will finally be the year that the upstart Warriors will topple the aging Spurs to conquer the West and take a crack at their first title (like the 1988 Pistons or the 1991 Bulls). Unfortunately there are several other factors involved. Despite the Spurs recent dominance, this season the Memphis Grizzlies are probably the Warriors toughest competition. If the playoff seedings stay as they are today the Grizz and Warriors will be the top two seeds, and would seemingly be on a collision course to deciding Western Conference dominance once and for all.

However the chips may fall in May and June, this season has already been a surprise and a success for the Warriors. As other teams scramble at the trade deadline, and the Western Conference mirrors the late 80s Cold War nuclear arms race, the Warriors are standing pat and not making any moves. Content to build on their first half success (42-9!), keep working on the their fundamentals (turnovers!), and continue to utilize a shifting rotation that Kerr has adeptly applied in order to get the absolute most out of each and every role player on the team.

At this point the future looks bright. I like the Warriors chances for a title in the next few years going forward. If history repeats itself- as it often does- the Warriors ascendency to the top of the NBA pile should take place soon enough.

posted by eL Dogg

The Don’t League

The Don’t League, Etc.

 

As All-Star Weekend approaches, I had a grab-bag of NBA observations I wanted to offer:

 

The D(on’t) League

I know the Developmental League is fledgling, especially when compared with the arc and development levels across minor league baseball and the immediacy of the NFL taxi squads, but the current set-up as I understand it just isn’t cutting it. The Warriors’ back-up center Festus Ezeli was sidelined with an ankle sprain from 12/23-2/3, yet his spot on the 12-man roster remained empty almost that entire time. During this duration there were also back-to-backs in which coach Steve Kerr sat big-man Andrew Bogut and super-wing-sub Andre Iguodala, in particular a game versus the Thunder when a half-ending sub-set left guard Justin Holiday (albeit on a switch, but still) defending Steven Adams at the rim and consequently giving up a 3-point play, and yet 7′ Ognjen Kuzmic was not temporarily tapped. Apparently there are 3 additional swing rosters spots outside of the 12 guarantees who can float ad hoc between NBA and DL rosters (which is a good idea in theory, the NBA version of a mini taxi squad–call it an Uber Unit?!), and this may have contributed permutations, but Kuz is on the Warr’s 15 and still wasn’t activated.

The D-League has the added deficit of not being fully developed to represent each team and this seems a huge disadvantage for any team without a representative who has to dip into a remote landscape while other teams can chose from their suburbed surrogate of familiar players they’ve already worked out and who are most likely running scaled-down versions of their own playbooks. And then there’s the problem of all players, even those on a team’s affiliated roster, being poachable by the rest of the Association (excluding the aforementioned 3 swing spots)–what kind of dynamic does this set up, where an unprotected player may get less minutes (and hence less time to “Develop”, the namesake & whole point of the League) in order to shield him from prospective suitors?!

 

In a perfect world, each NBA team would have it’s own corresponding, regional D-League team, with the entire roster protected for a set amount of time, similar to MiLB, while keeping the Swing 3 concept. High-schoolers would also be eligible to forego the farce of 2 semesters of college exploitation or the culture-shock of overseas and enter directly into the D-League or other potential options, weighing their D-League draft position, team, and/or bonus versus whatever scholarship or foreign offer they have on the table, thus potentially creating a D-League draft-day scenario that’s half NBA/NFL talent showcase and half college football letter-of-intent signing announcements. (The DL could even go as far as emulating the soccer and AAU club models, with under-18 and U16 affiliates–with the proviso of required/associated scholastic academies.)

Ok, onto the quick-hit rule changes:

The Big 1*

Reduce season to a 58-game schedule, play each team twice, home and away, and only play twice a week, college basketball conference play-style, with a nod towards the NFL’s immensely successful weekly event viewing schedule, including one-off marque match-ups similar to Sunday and Monday Night Football. This set-up would eliminate the dreaded back-to-backs (which are not part of the game at any other level, specifically the post-season, for good/quality control reasons), create balanced schedules across the board, and ensure the top 16 teams make the playoffs each year. (It would also eliminate conferences and divisions, and while I love the rivalries within baseball divisions and regions and the ability to make the postseason by out-battling your immediate subgroup, the NBA has never had as strong divisional dystopia and doesn’t even reward division winners any playoff seeding advantage, making the transition to a league-wide pool much easier to jump into!)

#2: Analytics

NBA Food Pyramid (Meat- Over Junk-Stats)–Construct an analytic system that susses out when teams play against weak/injured/fatigued competition and adjusts the stats accordingly (e.g., sub-.500 team, missing star player, second game of a back-to-back, garbage time, etc.).

“Blend Score”–Combine all the traditional counting stats with the new analytic stats in descending order of importance, add together and multiply by those importance factors, and get one super-value stat which can be viewed as per game or per minute**.

 

Rule/Scoring Tweaks

Time Outs–In order to keep play moving and decision-making on the court, especially during end-games, eliminate live-ball, bench-initiated, consecutive TOs, or TO-related clock re-sets (meaning no flopping for a looseball and signaling TO before getting tied up, no Chris Weber-ing to avoid a sideline double team, no extra assessments of defensive/offensive sets before key inbounds, and no TOs to avoid 5- and 8-second calls).

Fouls–Offender may never initiate defensive contact and receive a foul (think every James Harden drive ever and the old swing-through and leg-kick techniques); no help-defender can pick up a charge; change moving screens and pass-and-crashes (and possibly offensive fouls in general) to turnovers, not fouls, similar to the force-out rule (fans want evasive offenders and determined defenders, not body-hunters and push-overs); and the offensive team chooses intentional foul shooter at all times, not just within last 2 minutes (defusing the Bash-A-Bogut ploy).

 

Scoring–Start recording the hockey-assist, the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the eventual score, adhering to the current method of counting assists, but extended to all prior passes that qualify (hopefully increasing the cultural cachet of the assist/pass and helping the NBA be more of a joga bonita!).

 

Posted by: DT

(*I know this is highly financially infeasible, but play along!)

(**Assists (x14) – Points Allowed (x13) + Points (x12) – Technicals (X11) – Turn Overs (x10) + Steals (x9) + Rebounds (x8) + Stops (x7) + Blocks (x6) + Denials (x5) + Passes (x4) + Deflections (x3) + Picks (x2) – Missed Shots (X1) = Blend Score per game/min